Chinese mining giant sets Bitcoin bottom: $42,000 by the end of 2026
One of China's most authoritative miners, Jian Zhouer, has presented his calculation of the final point of the current bitcoin bear market. According to his model, the minimum price levels will be recorded between October and December 2026. The price of the first cryptocurrency could drop to $42,000–$44,000.
The main catalyst for this pessimistic forecast was the sharp decline in Strategy's mNAV multiplier to 0.72. This indicator has nearly reached its historical low of 0.7, recorded on May 11, 2022—at the moment of the market's painful transition from a phase of rapid growth to a prolonged downturn.
What does the mNAV indicator say?
This specific multiplier compares the market value of Strategy's shares to the net value of bitcoins per security. A value above one traditionally signals market overheating and a bubble. Conversely, values below one indicate excessive pessimism and undervaluation of the instrument. Current mNAV values could be the lowest level within the four-year cycle.
The analyst considers the fixation of a strong divergence with the STRC instrument as an additional weighty factor. This market situation opens up an excellent opportunity for classic arbitrage for large investors: opening long positions in MSTR shares while simultaneously launching shorts on bitcoin.
Mathematical model of cycles
To determine specific time frames, the analyst applied the traditional four-year halving cycle model. Based on these calculations, the expert identified October 31, 2026, as the most likely date for reaching the bear market bottom at around $44,016. The proposed mathematical concept is based on the behavior of an ordinary ball that rolls and bounces off the ground. With each subsequent impact, the bounce height naturally decreases—just as the volatility of the first cryptocurrency gradually fades as its global market capitalization increases.
Jian Zhouer is far from alone in his expectations of seeing bitcoin around $40,000. Previously, very similar price targets were publicly voiced by the co-founder of the popular BitMEX exchange, Arthur Hayes. He also predicted a drop to that level within the next six months. Additionally, analysts from the research firm Matrixport warned of a high probability of a brief dip below this psychological level.
Cryptalist's comment: The Chinese miner's forecast deserves attention, but I wouldn't rush to conclusions. The mNAV model is a powerful indicator, but it reflects institutional sentiment, not bitcoin's fundamental value. The market could find a bottom much earlier if the macroeconomic environment shifts in favor of risk assets. Nevertheless, the scenario of a drop to $42,000 remains realistic, especially against the backdrop of weakening bullish factors.