Chinese mining giant sees Bitcoin bottom at $42,000 by end of 2026: mNAV analysis
Authoritative Chinese miner Jian Zhaor has published his calculation of the final point of the current Bitcoin bear cycle. According to his analysis, the minimum price levels will be recorded between October and December 2026, and the price of the leading cryptocurrency could drop to the range of $42,000–$44,000. This implies an additional decline of approximately 30% from current levels.
The main trigger for this pessimistic forecast was the sharp drop in Strategy's mNAV indicator to 0.72. This metric, which compares the market value of MSTR shares to the net value of Bitcoin per share, has approached its historical low of 0.70, recorded on May 11, 2022. It was then that the market transitioned from a phase of rapid growth to a prolonged decline.
An mNAV ratio below 1 traditionally signals market overvaluation and a "bubble," while values below 1 indicate excessive pessimism and undervaluation of the instrument. According to the expert, the current mNAV level could be the lowest within the four-year cycle. An additional factor is the strong divergence with the STRC instrument, which opens opportunities for classic arbitrage for large investors. In this scenario, the optimal solution might be to open long positions in MSTR shares while simultaneously initiating short positions in Bitcoin.
Mathematical Model of Cycles and Timing of the Bottom
The key idea of the Chinese analyst is that the mNAV minimum never coincides in time with the lowest point of Bitcoin's price. In the previous cycle, about six months passed between these events. For instance, the mNAV multiplier dropped to its minimum of 0.7 in May 2022, when Bitcoin was trading around $31,017. It reached its true bottom at $15,476 only on November 21, 2022, although by then the mNAV index had already recovered to 1.2.
To determine specific timeframes, the analyst applied the traditional four-year halving cycle model. Based on these calculations, October 31, 2026, is highlighted as the most likely date for reaching the bear market bottom at around $44,016. The concept is based on the behavior of a regular ball bouncing off a surface: with each subsequent impact, the bounce height naturally decreases, just as Bitcoin's volatility gradually diminishes as its market capitalization grows.
Jian Zhaor is not alone in his expectations. Previously, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes voiced a similar forecast, predicting a drop to $40,000 within the next six months. Analysts at Matrixport also warned of a high probability of a temporary dip below this psychological level.
My comment: The Chinese miner's forecast appears mathematically sound and based on historical patterns, but it does not account for potential macroeconomic shifts and institutional demand, which could alter traditional cyclicality. Investors should consider the $40,000–$45,000 zone as a key accumulation area, rather than a guaranteed scenario of events.