Chinese mining giant sees Bitcoin bottom at $42,000 by the end of 2026
One of China's most authoritative miners, Jian Zhouer, has presented his analysis of the current Bitcoin bear cycle. According to his calculations, the final bottom will be recorded between October and December 2026. The expected price range for the bottom is between $42,000 and $44,000.
The mNAV Indicator: Key to the Puzzle
The main trigger for this pessimistic yet mathematically sound forecast was the sharp decline in Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) mNAV index to 0.72. This indicator is essentially a multiplier comparing the market value of MSTR shares to the net value of the Bitcoin it holds per share. An mNAV value below 1.0 is a clear sign of the instrument being undervalued and extreme pessimism among large institutional investors.
The current value of 0.72 has nearly reached the historical low of the previous cycle at 0.70, which was recorded on May 11, 2022. At that time, Bitcoin was trading around $31,000. However, history shows that the bottom in mNAV and the true price bottom of BTC never coincide in time. In the last cycle, the gap was about six months: mNAV hit its low in May, but Bitcoin itself only crashed to $15,476 in November 2022, when mNAV had already recovered to 1.2.
Cycle Mathematics and the Ball Model
Jian Zhouer applied the classic four-year halving cycle model. To determine the timeframe, he used the concept of a "rolling ball": with each subsequent cycle, the amplitude of price fluctuations naturally decreases as the asset's market capitalization grows. Extrapolating this model, the analyst identified October 31, 2026, as the most likely date for reaching the bear market bottom around $44,016.
Market Consensus
Jian Zhouer is not alone in his expectations. Previously, a similar price target around $40,000 was voiced by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, predicting a drop within the next six months. Matrixport analysts also warned of a high probability of a short-term break below this psychological level before a full reversal begins.
My comment: The forecast is based on a solid mathematical foundation and historical patterns, which gives it weight. However, I would note that the mNAV model reflects stock market sentiment, which is inherently unstable. Shifting the focus from Bitcoin itself to MSTR derivatives introduces additional error. Nevertheless, the scenario of reaching $42,000-$44,000 by the end of 2026 appears to be one of the most realistic and technically sound at this time.