$8.6 billion in flames: The largest Bitcoin options expiration in 2026 will wipe out bullish bets
Friday will be a day of "great recalculation" for the bitcoin market. On the Deribit exchange at 11:00 MSK, options on the first cryptocurrency with a total notional value of $10.6 billion expire. This is the largest expiration in 2026, and its consequences will be felt by all market participants. The event will be particularly painful for bulls: about 80% of this amount, or $8.6 billion, is in bets on price increases (call options), which will likely expire worthless.
The "Maximum Pain" Mechanism and Doomed Hopes
There are currently 87,000 call options open on the market versus 76,241 put options. This bias in favor of bulls initially seemed logical when bitcoin was trading near $70,000. Traders actively bought options with strike prices of $80,000 and higher, paying a real premium for the right to purchase. However, the June decline of 11% crashed the price to the $63,000 mark, making these contracts deeply unprofitable.
The key question now is whether the price will move towards the "maximum pain" level of $74,000. This is where the largest loss for option holders is concentrated. The mechanism is simple: dealers who sold these contracts hedge their risks in the spot market. This flow can pull the price towards zones with the maximum number of contracts. However, $74,000 is 15% above current levels, making such a scenario unlikely without a powerful external catalyst.
Market on the Brink: Scenarios for Bitcoin
The densest concentration of call options is at the $80,000 level with an open interest of $406 million. This level serves as a powerful ceiling, limiting any potential growth. At the same time, bears are also vulnerable: at the $60,000 strike, $450 million in open interest is concentrated in put options. If Thursday's US inflation data turns out to be hot, the price could break through this support, and dealers will begin to restructure their hedges downward, triggering a collapse.
A similar scenario already unfolded in March, when a $14 billion expiration turned a moderate decline into a crash to $66,000. The market is now balancing on the edge: weak inflation data could cause a bounce to $80,000, while strong data could break through $60,000 and intensify the decline.
My view: The largest expiration of the year does not create conditions for a new rally, but rather draws a line under the inflated expectations of the bull market. Inflation statistics will be the trigger, but fundamentally, the market remains in a consolidation phase. Traders should prepare for increased volatility: either we will see a sharp bounce to "maximum pain," or an acceleration of the downward trend.