Chinese mining giant predicts Bitcoin bottom of $42,000 by the end of 2026
One of the most influential Chinese miners, Jian Zhouer, has presented his calculation of the final point of the current Bitcoin bear cycle. According to his analysis, the minimum price levels will be recorded between October and December 2026, and the price of the first cryptocurrency could drop to $42,000–$44,000.
Signal from mNAV: Historical low approaching
The main catalyst for this pessimistic scenario was the sharp decline in the mNAV ratio of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) to 0.72. This indicator, which compares the market value of MSTR shares with the net value of Bitcoin held by the company per share, has nearly reached the historical low of 0.7 recorded on May 11, 2022. It was then that the market transitioned from a phase of rapid growth to a prolonged decline.
An mNAV value below 1 traditionally signals excessive pessimism and undervaluation of the instrument by major US funds. According to the expert, the current situation opens unique opportunities for classic arbitrage: opening long positions in MSTR shares while simultaneously launching shorts on Bitcoin.
Time lag and mathematical model
The key idea is that the mNAV low never coincides in time with the bottom of Bitcoin's price. In the previous cycle, about six months passed between these events. At that time, mNAV fell to 0.7 in May 2022 with a BTC price of $31,017, and the true bottom at $15,476 was only reached on November 21, 2022, when the index had already recovered to 1.2.
To determine specific timeframes, Jian Zhouer applied the traditional four-year halving cycle model. Based on these calculations, he identified October 31, 2026, as the most likely date for reaching the bear market bottom at around $44,016. The proposed mathematical concept is based on the behavior of an ordinary ball that rolls and bounces off the ground: with each subsequent impact, the bounce height naturally decreases, just as the volatility of the first cryptocurrency gradually fades as its global market capitalization increases.
My expert opinion: The Chinese miner's forecast appears technically sound, but it should be remembered that the cryptocurrency market is extremely sensitive to macroeconomic factors and regulatory news. The scenario of a drop to $42,000 is realistic, but the time horizon until the end of 2026 leaves room for many unexpected twists. Investors should be prepared for high volatility and not view this forecast as the only possible one.