US quantum investments need clear rules: analysts warn of risks
Quantum computing is becoming a key argument in favor of targeted U.S. industrial policy, but large-scale government injections into the technology sector require transparent and strict regulations. This is not just a matter of efficiency — it is a matter of national security and long-term competitiveness.
In areas such as drones, batteries, or rare earth metal processing, the government can limit itself to procurement, regulation, or support for allied suppliers. With quantum technologies, the situation is fundamentally different: commercial products are virtually nonexistent, the dominant architecture is undefined, and production chains are in their infancy. This is precisely why early government intervention here may be justified — before critical dependencies form.
The direct link between quantum technologies and national security is beyond doubt. Scalable quantum computers have the potential to break public-key cryptography, and related developments find applications in sensors, navigation, communications, and scientific calculations. This is a rare case where direct government investment can be justified, but it should under no circumstances become a universal model for the entire economy.
U.S. Department of Commerce Program: $2 Billion for a Quantum Future
On May 21, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the signing of nine letters of intent totaling $2.013 billion under the CHIPS and Science Act. The funds are directed toward building two quantum factories and supporting seven companies developing quantum computing.
Key recipients:
- IBM — $1 billion to create a subsidiary for producing quantum-class superconducting wafers.
- GlobalFoundries — $375 million for a secure quantum factory.
- Atom Computing, D-Wave, Infleqtion, PsiQuantum, Quantinuum — $100 million each.
- Rigetti — up to $100 million.
- Diraq — up to $38 million.
A condition of support is a minority non-controlling stake for the government in each company. It was this point that led Google to decline participation in the program — the corporation believed such requirements could slow the path to creating a useful quantum computer.
Three Principles for Government Investment
To avoid mistakes, three key principles must be followed:
- Intervene only when there is a clear threat to national security or a serious economic vulnerability that the market cannot address on its own.
- Do not invest where a finished product can be purchased. In the case of quantum computing, this approach does not yet work because the necessary products do not yet exist in industrial form.
- Support should maintain distance between the government and business. Taxpayers should benefit from the growth of supported companies, but direct equity ownership creates political risks.
One effective tool could be warrants — they give the government the right to participate in the growth of companies' value without full control over them.
Expert opinion: The quantum race is not just a technological competition, but a matter of strategic survival. The U.S. is betting on government funding, but without clear rules and control mechanisms, this could lead to a bubble and inefficient spending. Investors should closely monitor how these programs develop — they could set a precedent for the entire high-tech sector.