Chinese mining giant predicts Bitcoin bottom at $42,000 by the end of 2026
One of the most authoritative participants in China's mining industry has presented his calculation of the final point of the current bearish cycle for Bitcoin. According to his model, the minimum price levels will be recorded between October and December 2026, and the price of the first cryptocurrency could drop to the range of $42,000–$44,000.
The main trigger for this pessimistic scenario was the sharp decline in Strategy's mNAV ratio to 0.72. This indicator has almost reached its historical low of 0.70, which was recorded on May 11, 2022 — at the moment of the market's painful transition from a phase of rapid growth to a prolonged decline.
Why mNAV Signals a Reversal
The mNAV multiplier compares the market value of Strategy's shares with the net value of Bitcoin per security. A value above one traditionally indicates market overheating and the formation of a bubble. Values below one, on the other hand, signal excessive pessimism and undervaluation of the instrument.
Current values could be the lowest level for mNAV within the four-year cycle. The analyst considers the recording of a strong divergence with the STRC instrument as an additional significant factor. This market situation opens up an excellent opportunity for classic arbitrage for large investors: opening long positions in MSTR shares while simultaneously initiating short positions in Bitcoin.
Timing of the Price Bottom Formation
The key idea of the Chinese expert is that the mNAV minimum never coincides in time with the lowest point of Bitcoin's value itself. In the previous cycle, there was a time gap of approximately six months between these two events. The mNAV multiplier dropped to its minimum level of 0.7 back in May 2022, when the first cryptocurrency was trading around $31,017. Meanwhile, Bitcoin reached its true bottom at $15,476 only on November 21, 2022, although the mNAV index had already recovered to 1.2 by that point.
To determine specific time frames, the analyst applied the traditional four-year halving cycle model. Based on these calculations, the expert identified October 31, 2026, as the most likely date for reaching the bearish bottom at around $44,016. The proposed mathematical concept is based on the behavior of a regular ball that rolls and bounces off the ground. With each subsequent impact, the bounce height naturally decreases — just as the volatility of the first cryptocurrency gradually diminishes as its global market capitalization increases.
Jiang Zuoer is far from alone in his expectations of seeing Bitcoin around $40,000. Previously, very similar price targets were publicly voiced by Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the popular BitMEX exchange. He also predicted a drop in the price to that level within the next six months. Additionally, specialists from the analytical company Matrixport warned of a high probability of a temporary fall below this psychological level.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The Chinese miner's forecast looks technically sound, especially considering the historical correlation between mNAV and the BTC price. However, it is worth remembering that the cryptocurrency market is extremely sensitive to macroeconomic factors and institutional adoption. A sudden positive shock, such as the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, could significantly adjust any cyclical forecast. Investors should consider this scenario as one of the possible outcomes, but not as the only correct one.