Chinese mining giant predicts Bitcoin bottom at $42,000 by the end of 2026
One of the most authoritative players in the Chinese mining sector has presented its calculation of the final point of the current Bitcoin bear cycle. According to its model, the minimum price levels will be recorded between October and December 2026, with the leading cryptocurrency potentially dropping to the range of $42,000–$44,000.
mNAV Indicator: A Signal for a Reversal
The key trigger for this pessimistic scenario was the sharp drop in Strategy's mNAV multiplier to 0.72. This indicator, reflecting the ratio of MSTR's market capitalization to the net asset value of Bitcoin per share, has nearly reached the historical low of the previous cycle (0.70), recorded in May 2022. It was then that the market transitioned from a phase of rapid growth to a prolonged decline.
It is worth noting that current mNAV values are extremely low for a four-year cycle. An additional factor pointing to the proximity of the bottom is the strong divergence with the STRC tool. This market configuration opens up a classic arbitrage opportunity for large investors: taking long positions in MSTR shares while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin.
Time Model and Cycle Mathematics
To determine specific timeframes, the analyst applied the traditional four-year halving cycle model. According to his calculations, the most likely date for reaching the bear market bottom is October 31, 2026, with a target price of around $44,016. Interestingly, this mathematical concept is based on the behavior of an ordinary ball rolling and bouncing off the ground: with each subsequent impact, the bounce height naturally decreases. Similarly, Bitcoin's volatility gradually diminishes as its global market capitalization grows.
It is important to emphasize that the mNAV multiplier never coincides in time with the lowest point of BTC's value. In the previous cycle, mNAV hit its low in May 2022 with Bitcoin at around $31,017, while the true bottom at $15,476 was only recorded in November 2022, when the index had already recovered to 1.2.
Expert Commentary: The Chinese miner's forecast appears logical from a macrocyclic analysis perspective, but I believe that current liquidity and institutional demand through ETFs could significantly adjust this scenario. The market has become more mature, and classic four-year cycles are gradually losing their rigidity. A drop to $42,000 is possible, but the timeframe may be more compressed than the model suggests.