Chinese mining giant predicts Bitcoin bottom at $42,000: wait until the end of 2026
One of China's most authoritative miners has shared his perspective on the end of the current bear phase. According to his calculations, Bitcoin's bottom will be reached between October and December 2026, with the price of the leading cryptocurrency potentially dropping to the $42,000–$44,000 range. This statement is not mere speculation but the result of an in-depth analysis of market indicators.
The mNAV Indicator: A Signal for a Reversal
The main catalyst for this pessimistic scenario was the sharp decline in Strategy's mNAV ratio to 0.72. This indicator serves as a barometer of institutional investor sentiment. It compares the market value of Strategy's shares (MSTR) with the net value of the Bitcoin it holds per share. A value above 1.0 traditionally indicates market overheating and the formation of a bubble. Conversely, the current level of 0.72 signals excessive pessimism and undervaluation of the instrument.
Notably, the current mNAV value nearly mirrors the historical low of 2022 (0.70), recorded on May 11. At that time, Bitcoin was trading around $31,017. However, the true bottom at $15,476 was only reached on November 21, 2022, when mNAV had already recovered to 1.2. This time lag is a key element in the Chinese expert's analysis.
Mathematical Cycle Model: The Ball Bounces Lower Each Time
To determine specific timeframes, the analyst applied the classic four-year halving cycle model. He drew an analogy to a ball rolling and bouncing off the ground. With each subsequent impact, the bounce height naturally decreases. Similarly, Bitcoin's volatility gradually diminishes as its global market capitalization grows.
Based on this concept, the expert identified October 31, 2026, as the most likely date for reaching the bear market bottom around $44,016. For this scenario to materialize, Bitcoin would need to fall approximately another 30% from current levels.
Market Consensus: $40,000 as the New Reality?
Jiang Zhaor is far from alone in his expectations. Previously, very similar price targets were publicly voiced by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicted a drop to $40,000 within the next six months. Additionally, analysts at the research firm Matrixport warned of a high probability of a brief dip below this psychological level.
My analysis: The scenario of Bitcoin falling to $42,000–$44,000 by the end of 2026 looks quite realistic. The historical lag between the mNAV low and Bitcoin's true bottom creates a "window of opportunity" for arbitrage. However, the key risk is a sudden macroeconomic shock, which could either accelerate the decline or completely invalidate this forecast. Investors should prepare for a prolonged consolidation phase rather than a quick recovery.