The largest expiration of 2026: $8.6 billion in bitcoin bullish bets will burn out on Friday
This Friday, the largest Bitcoin options expiration of 2026 will take place on the Deribit exchange. The total volume of expiring contracts amounts to $10.6 billion, and about 80% of them — $8.6 billion — are bets by traders on price increases (call options). Under the current market conditions, these positions will be unprofitable and will expire worthless, yielding not a single cent for their holders.
The settlement will occur at 11:00 Moscow time. The key question now is whether the Bitcoin price can at least approach the $74,000 mark. This is the level of the so-called "max pain," where option holders' losses are maximized. The mechanism of this effect is simple: dealers who sold options hedge risks on the spot market, and this flow can pull the price toward levels with the highest number of contracts.
Why bets on growth are doomed
Several months ago, when Bitcoin was hovering around $70,000, traders actively bought options with a strike price of $80,000 and higher, betting on further growth and paying a real premium for it. However, the situation changed in June: an 11% decline dragged the price down to $63,000, making these levels unattainable. As a result, call options at $80,000 lose value and will expire without payout at Friday's settlement.
There are 87,000 call options open on the market versus 76,241 put options. The predominance of calls only confirms that it was the bets on price increases that turned out to be unprofitable. The densest concentration of open interest in calls is at $80,000, with a volume of $406 million. This level simultaneously serves as a ceiling, limiting any potential growth.
The market balances on the edge
Those betting on a decline are also vulnerable. At the $60,000 strike, $450 million in open interest is concentrated in put options. If the inflation data released on Thursday turns out to be high and the price breaks through this level, dealers will begin to adjust their hedging downward, and support could quickly collapse. A similar scenario already unfolded in March, when a $14 billion expiration turned a moderate decline into a crash to $66,000.
Thus, the outcome largely depends on inflation statistics: weak data could trigger a rebound that will hit the $80,000 ceiling, while strong data could break through $60,000 and intensify the decline. Stepping back from short-term fluctuations, the overall picture looks restrained. The largest options expiration of 2026 does not create conditions for a new rally but rather draws a line under expectations of a continued bull market.
My professional view: the current situation is a classic example of a "bull trap." The mass expiration of call options without payout reduces pressure on dealers and may temporarily stabilize the market, but a powerful catalyst is needed to resume the upward trend, and none is visible on the horizon yet.