The largest expiration of the year: $8.6 billion in bullish bitcoin bets will burn out on Friday
The derivatives market is preparing for a historic event: a record $10.6 billion in Bitcoin options is set to expire on Friday morning. This is the largest expiration of 2026. However, a key detail is that about 80% of this amount, or $8.6 billion, consists of call options — bets on price increases. With the current Bitcoin price stuck below $64,000, the vast majority of these contracts will end up "out of the money" and expire worthless, yielding nothing for their holders.
The settlement will take place on the Deribit exchange at 11:00 Moscow time. The main question now is whether the Bitcoin price can at least slightly approach the $74,000 mark. This is the level of so-called "max pain," where option holders' losses are greatest, and it is the level to which market makers traditionally pull the price before expiration.
Why Bullish Bets Are Doomed
There are 87,000 call contracts open on the market versus 76,241 put options. The bias towards calls is obvious, but it is precisely this that makes them vulnerable. Several months ago, when Bitcoin was trading around $70,000, traders actively bought options with a strike price of $80,000 and higher, expecting the rally to continue. They paid a real premium for this right.
The situation changed dramatically in June. An 11% decline dragged the price down to $63,000, making these levels unattainable. As a result, call options at $80,000 lose value and will expire without payout at Friday's settlement. The hope for holders of such contracts lies in the "max pain" effect, but the current distance to this level is too great.
Market Balances on the Edge
The positioning of key levels works against buyers. The max pain level of $74,000 is 15% above the current price, and the densest concentration of call options is at $80,000 with an open interest of $406 million. This level acts as a ceiling that limits potential growth.
Those betting on a decline are also vulnerable. At the $60,000 strike, $450 million in open interest is concentrated in put options. If Thursday's inflation data comes in high and the price breaks through this level, dealers will begin to adjust their hedging downwards, and support could quickly collapse. A similar scenario already unfolded in March, when a $14 billion expiration turned a moderate decline into a crash to $66,000.
Analytical conclusion: The outcome largely depends on inflation statistics: weak data could trigger a bounce that hits the $80,000 level, while strong data could break through $60,000 and intensify the decline. However, setting aside short-term fluctuations, the overall picture looks restrained. The largest expiration of the year does not create conditions for a new rally but rather draws a line under expectations of a continued bull market. In my assessment, the market is entering a consolidation phase, and aggressive long positions currently carry excessive risk.