"Funeral" of Bitcoin: Market loses $2.2 trillion in 261 days — is this the end of the cycle or its beginning?
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has collapsed to $2.1 trillion, which is 54% below the all-time high of $4.3 trillion recorded on October 6, 2025. Over 261 days, the market has lost about $2.2 trillion, or an average of $8.8 billion daily. Such figures are causing even the most steadfast "bulls" to ponder whether the final stage of the bear cycle has arrived.
Against the backdrop of such a massive crash, a wave of declarations about the imminent death of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market has sharply intensified on social media. However, at the same time, proponents of the market cycle theory have also become more active, seeing in the current events merely another phase of the familiar four-year pattern.
Arguments in Favor of the Market Cycle Theory
A well-known trader under the nickname cyclop notes that he has not encountered such a volume of panic posts in a long time. In his opinion, such sentiments actually confirm the operation of cyclical mechanisms. He suggests the possibility of buying Bitcoin at around $40,000 in September or October with the goal of holding the asset for three years.
Popular crypto blogger naiive reminds us of past bearish periods — each of them inevitably ended. The repetition of BTC's movements allows many analysts to see a clear mathematical pattern in what is happening.
Founder and CEO of Zap, Jack Mallers, draws a sharp line between altcoins and the first cryptocurrency. In his view, most digital coins will eventually depreciate, while the potential of the leading cryptocurrency exceeds $1 million. He recalls that the flagship asset has been written off many times: after the closure of Silk Road, the bankruptcy of the Mt. Gox exchange, constant threats of government bans, and the collapse of the FTX platform — yet the instrument has recovered each time.
Analyst sunnydecree lists the fundamental properties of the network that have remained unchanged for 17 years: the issuance of a new block approximately every ten minutes, a strictly limited supply of 21 million coins, automatic difficulty adjustment every 2016 blocks, the use of the reliable SHA-256 hashing algorithm, and an uptime indicator of around 99.99%. In his opinion, the stability of BTC indicates the unfoundedness of panic posts about the supposedly impending death of the first cryptocurrency.
Arguments of Skeptics and Market Risks
The opposing side of the debate emphasizes that the scale and duration of the current decline significantly distinguish it from previous corrections. Analysts at the research firm The Kobeissi Letter focus on the nature of the sell-offs: the market has consistently lost huge amounts of capitalization over hundreds of days, indicating a prolonged trend rather than a one-time panic capitulation by players. According to experts, the situation reflects the depth of the crisis and a clear lack of new drivers for the return of retail and institutional investors. The main conclusion of the analytical team is that the industry urgently needs a fundamentally new strong narrative.
A blind bet on the repetition of past historical periods remains only a theoretical assumption, but by no means a guaranteed rule. A simple coincidence of dates from previous lows does not at all promise an automatic trend reversal this time. Accordingly, any specific price targets and months for reaching the bottom mentioned by analysts are purely speculative in nature.
Cryptalist's Comment: History does tend to repeat itself, but not to copy itself. The current depth of the drawdown and the lack of new institutional catalysts make this bear market unique. Investors should prepare for a prolonged period of consolidation, rather than a quick V-shaped recovery.