The market is down by 54%: another "funeral" for Bitcoin or a natural correction?
The cryptocurrency market capitalization has collapsed to approximately $2.1 trillion, which is 54% below the all-time high of $4.3 trillion recorded on October 6, 2025. Thus, since that point, the market has lost about $2.2 trillion over 261 days, or an average of $8.8 billion daily.
Against the backdrop of such a massive collapse, a wave of claims about the imminent death of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market has sharply intensified on social media. At the same time, supporters of the view that the decline is merely part of the usual market cycle have also become more active. In this review, I have gathered arguments from both sides.
Arguments in Favor of the Market Cycle Theory
Supporters of the four-year cycle theory assess the current drawdown as a natural repetition of past bear phases. A well-known trader under the nickname cyclop noted that he has not encountered such a number of panic posts in a long time. In his opinion, such sentiments actually confirm the operation of cyclical mechanisms. The investor allows for the possibility of buying Bitcoin at a price around $40,000 in September or October with the goal of holding the asset for three years.
Popular crypto blogger naiive reminds us of past bear periods — each of them inevitably ended. The repetition of BTC's movements allows many analysts to see a clear mathematical pattern in what is happening.
Founder and CEO of Zap, Jack Mallers, draws a sharp line between altcoins and the first cryptocurrency. According to Mallers, most digital coins will eventually depreciate, while the potential of the flagship cryptocurrency exceeds $1 million. The entrepreneur recalls that the flagship asset has been "buried" many times: after the closure of Silk Road, the bankruptcy of the Mt. Gox exchange, constant threats of government bans, and the collapse of the FTX platform. The instrument has recovered each time.
Analyst sunnydecree lists the fundamental properties of the network that have remained unchanged for 17 years:
- Issuance of a new block approximately every ten minutes.
- Hard-capped supply of 21 million coins.
- Automatic difficulty adjustment every 2016 blocks.
- Use of the reliable SHA-256 hashing algorithm.
- Uptime indicator at around 99.99%.
In his opinion, BTC's stability indicates the unfoundedness of panic posts about the supposedly impending death of the first cryptocurrency.
Arguments of Skeptics and Market Risks
The opposing side of the debate emphasizes that the scale and duration of the current decline significantly distinguish it from previous corrections. Analysts at the research company The Kobeissi Letter focus on the nature of the sell-offs. The market has been steadily losing huge amounts of capitalization over hundreds of days, indicating a prolonged trend rather than a one-time panic capitulation by players. According to experts, the situation reflects the depth of the crisis and a clear lack of new drivers for the return of retail and institutional investors. The main conclusion of the analytical team is that the industry urgently needs a fundamentally new strong narrative.
A blind bet on the repetition of past historical periods remains only a theoretical assumption, but by no means a guaranteed rule. A simple coincidence of dates of previous lows does not at all promise an automatic trend reversal this time. Accordingly, any specific price targets and months of reaching the bottom named by analysts are purely speculative in nature.
My comment as an analyst: The current situation is a classic moment of truth for the market. On one hand, Bitcoin's fundamental indicators remain unshakable, and history indeed knows many examples of its "resurrection." On the other hand, the depth and duration of this bear market, as well as the absence of fresh growth catalysts (such as mass institutional adoption or clear regulation), make analogies with past cycles increasingly unreliable. Investors should prepare for a prolonged period of consolidation, rather than a quick V-shaped recovery.