Bitcoin on the verge of a deep correction: Chinese miner and Arthur Hayes agree on a forecast of a drop to $42,000
The cryptocurrency market is preparing for a significant reassessment. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhuoer, has published a forecast according to which the local bottom of Bitcoin will be in the range of $42,000–$44,000. Notably, his estimate is almost identical to the recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who expects a decline to $40,000.
Signal from MicroStrategy Stock
Jiang Zhuoer's main argument is the sharp decline in the mNAV (adjusted net asset value) indicator of Strategy (ticker MSTR). This indicator has now dropped to 0.72. This means the market values the company cheaper than the cost of its own Bitcoin holdings per share. The last time such a low mNAV value was observed was in May 2022, when Bitcoin was trading around $31,000. However, the decline continued then, and by November the asset had crashed to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse.
Jiang Zhuoer emphasizes that the mNAV minimum is not an exact Bitcoin price, but merely a signal of fundamental weakness. For a temporary benchmark, he uses the four-year cycle model, comparing it to "damped bounces of a ball." According to his calculations, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026.
Hayes' Tactical Strategy
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion, but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 in the next six months. At the same time, he is hedging his position with put spreads (an option strategy to protect against a decline), but overall maintains a long-term bullish forecast, expecting the price above $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The levels mentioned by Jiang Zhuoer and Hayes imply a drop of 30–35% from current values.
The key question is whether mNAV will repeat the 2022 scenario, when it preceded the actual Bitcoin price by six months. If so, we are facing not just a correction, but a prolonged bear market that could last until the end of 2026.
Analytical commentary from Cryptalist: Consensus between miners and institutional traders is a rare phenomenon that cannot be ignored. However, I would note that the current macroeconomic environment (Fed rate cuts, potential ETF launches) could disrupt cyclical patterns. Nevertheless, for cautious investors, the $40,000–$44,000 levels look like an attractive accumulation zone, not a catastrophe.