Bearish signal from MSTR: Chinese miner and Arthur Hayes agree on Bitcoin bottom forecast
The cryptocurrency market continues to receive alarming signals from key players. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool Jiang Zhuoeer, presented his analysis, according to which the local bottom of bitcoin will be reached in the range of $42,000–$44,000 by the end of 2026. Notably, this forecast is almost identical to the recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who estimates a possible drop to $40,000.
Jiang Zhuoeer's main argument is the critical decline in the mNAV (modified net asset value) indicator of Strategy's shares (ticker MSTR). Currently, this indicator has dropped to 0.72, meaning the market values the company cheaper than its own bitcoin holdings per share. The last time such a low was observed was in May 2022, when bitcoin was trading around $31,000. However, as the miner rightly notes, the mNAV low is not necessarily the low of the bitcoin price itself. In 2022, after the signal from mNAV, the asset continued to fall to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse, which took about six months.
Jiang Zhuoeer uses a four-year cycle model, comparing the current movement to "dampening ball bounces." According to his logic, the bottom of the current decline could occur on October 31, 2026. The miner himself, who has already survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical Bet on a Decline
Arthur Hayes came to a similar conclusion, but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that bitcoin could drop to $40,000 in the next six months. However, his strategy is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes uses put spreads to hedge against a decline, but overall remains a bull, expecting a price above $200,000 by the end of the year. The current bitcoin level of around $61,345 means the projected bottom is 30–35% below current values.
The key question for the market is whether mNAV will repeat its leading signal by six months, as it did in 2022. If so, we face another difficult period before bitcoin can turn around to new heights.
My professional view: the coincidence of forecasts from such different players — a miner with many years of experience and a derivatives veteran — deserves attention. However, one should not forget that the cryptocurrency market is extremely sensitive to macroeconomic shocks, and any external trigger can either accelerate the decline or completely change the trajectory.