Is Bitcoin preparing to drop to $42,000? Miners and analysts agree.
The cryptocurrency market is once again in a zone of uncertainty, and leading industry experts have begun discussing a possible deep pullback. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhouer, has presented his forecast, which almost completely aligns with a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
Bearish Signal from Strategy Shares
Jiang Zhouer believes that the local bottom for Bitcoin will be at the level of $42,000 – $44,000. In his opinion, this event will occur by the end of 2026. The main argument is a bearish signal from the shares of Strategy (ticker MSTR). He points to a critical drop in the mNAV indicator, which reflects the ratio of the company's market capitalization to the amount of Bitcoin per share. Currently, this indicator has fallen to nearly 0.7 — a level close to the lows of May 2022.
Zhouer emphasizes that the mNAV low is not a precise price target for Bitcoin, but rather a signal of deep undervaluation. The last time mNAV fell to such levels in May 2022, Bitcoin was trading around $31,000, but then continued its decline to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse. About six months passed between these points.
"It should be noted that the mNAV low is not yet the Bitcoin price low," the miner added.
Cyclical Model and Hayes' Tactics
Zhouer determines the timing of his forecast based on a four-year cycle model, which he compares to the diminishing bounces of a ball. According to this logic, the bottom of the current decline could occur on October 31, 2026. The miner himself is already holding short positions and plans to return to buying at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes, in turn, reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical. Hayes is hedging his positions with put spreads (an options strategy to protect against declines), but overall expects growth — by the end of the year, he anticipates a price above $200,000.
Current Situation and Key Question
At the time of writing this analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The $42,000 level mentioned by Zhouer is approximately 30% below current values, while Hayes' $40,000 mark implies a decline of nearly 35%.
The key question for the market is whether mNAV will repeat the history of 2022 and lead the price by six months. If so, we can expect a prolonged correction with a possible bottom by the end of 2026.
My expert opinion: Consensus between miners and traders of this caliber is a rare occurrence. Although the exact figures may not align, the very fact that two such different players see the same risk zone ($40,000 – $44,000) suggests a high probability of a deep correction. Investors should prepare for volatility and possibly consider these levels as long-term entry points.