Bitcoin on its way to $42,000: Chinese miner and Arthur Hayes agree
The Bitcoin market appears to be preparing for a major correction. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool Jiang Zhuoer, predicts a local bottom for the first cryptocurrency in the range of $42,000–$44,000. This forecast nearly aligns with a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who sees a possible drop to $40,000.
Jiang Zhuoer's main argument is a bearish signal from the stock of Strategy (ticker MSTR). The analyst points to a critical decline in the mNAV metric, which reflects the ratio of the company's market capitalization to its Bitcoin holdings per share. Currently, mNAV has dropped to nearly 0.72, close to the lows of May 2022. When this indicator is below 1.0, the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings, which is a warning sign.
A Signal from the Past: mNAV and Its Consequences
Jiang Zhuoer emphasizes that the mNAV low is not a precise timing indicator for Bitcoin's price. Last time, in May 2022, when mNAV was around 0.7, Bitcoin was worth approximately $31,000. However, the asset then continued to fall, reaching $15,650 by the end of November amid the collapse of the FTX exchange. Thus, about six months passed between the signal and the actual bottom. Now, in his view, history may repeat itself, and the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026, if following the four-year cycle model.
Jiang Zhuoer, who has already experienced several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom. This indicates a high degree of confidence that the current correction is far from over.
Arthur Hayes: A Tactical Bet on a Decline
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, unlike Jiang Zhuoer, his bet is more tactical in nature. Hayes is hedging his position with put spreads (an options strategy to protect against a decline), but overall, he still expects growth—by the end of the year, he anticipates a price above $200,000.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The range mentioned by Jiang Zhuoer is roughly 30% below this level, while Hayes' $40,000 level implies a drop of nearly 35%. The key question now is whether mNAV will repeat its leading role, as it did in 2022. If so, we face a long and painful descent to the bottom, possibly stretched out until the end of 2026.
My Expert Opinion: The consensus between such different players as a Chinese miner and the founder of BitMEX is a powerful signal. The market is clearly preparing for a deep correction, and only the most desperate bulls can ignore this. However, it is worth remembering that Hayes' tactical bet implies a quick rebound after hitting the bottom. For long-term investors, this could be an ideal entry opportunity, but patience will be key.