Bearish consensus: Bitcoin could test $42,000 by the end of 2026
The cryptocurrency market continues to receive signals of a potential deep correction. Analysis from leading industry figures indicates that Bitcoin could face a significant decline in the next year and a half. The consensus forecast suggests a drop to levels of $40,000–$44,000, which would mark the local bottom of the current bear cycle.
One of the key indicators experts are focusing on is the mNAV ratio of Strategy (ticker MSTR). This metric, reflecting the ratio of the company's market capitalization to the value of its Bitcoin reserves per share, has dropped to 0.72. This is a critically low level, last seen in May 2022 when Bitcoin was trading around $31,000. The current mNAV value signals that the market is valuing the company cheaper than its own BTC holdings, a classic bearish sign. It is important to emphasize that the minimum mNAV value does not necessarily coincide with Bitcoin's price bottom, but it serves as a powerful leading indicator.
Cyclical Model and Timeframes
Based on the four-year cycle model, which is compared to the diminishing bounces of a ball, the bottom of the current decline is expected to occur around October 31, 2026. This time point correlates with previous cyclical lows and indicates that the correction could be prolonged. Last time, after the mNAV minimum was reached in May 2022, it took Bitcoin about six months to hit the absolute bottom at $15,650 amid the FTX collapse. This clearly demonstrates that significant time can pass between the signal and the final point.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% over the past 24 hours. The projected range of $42,000–$44,000 implies a drop of approximately 30% from current levels, while the more conservative estimate of $40,000 suggests a decline of nearly 35%.
Analytical Conclusion: The convergence of forecasts from such different market participants—a miner using on-chain metrics and a trader focusing on macroeconomics—deserves close attention. Although short-term bounces are possible, the overall medium-term trend remains downward. Investors should prepare for volatility and, possibly, an opportunity to enter the market at significantly lower levels in the second half of 2026, when the cycle reaches its culmination.