Bearish consensus: Bitcoin is preparing for a drop to $42,000–$44,000 by the end of 2026
The Bitcoin market is increasingly showing signs of a deep correction, a conclusion reached by two influential industry players simultaneously. One of China's largest miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhuoe, published a forecast according to which the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will be reached in the range of $42,000–$44,000. Notably, his assessment is almost identical to a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who suggests a decline to $40,000.
Jiang Zhuoe argues his forecast based on an analysis of the mNAV indicator of Strategy's stock (ticker MSTR). This multiplier reflects the ratio of the market price of the stock to the value of Bitcoin per share. When mNAV falls below 1.0, it means the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings — a classic bearish signal. Currently, this indicator is at around 0.72, approaching the record lows of May 2022.
However, as the miner emphasizes, the mNAV low is not yet the bottom of Bitcoin's price itself. In 2022, the indicator reached a low when BTC was around $31,000, but the asset continued to fall to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse. The gap between these points was almost half a year. Jiang believes the current bear cycle could repeat this scenario, with an estimated bottom date of October 31, 2026, based on the four-year cycle model.
Jiang, who has already survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom. His approach is a classic tactic of an experienced miner: hedge risks during declines and aggressively accumulate at local lows.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical Caution with a Long-Term Bullish Outlook
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 in the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes uses put spreads to protect against declines, but overall remains a bull and expects the price to exceed $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in a day. The range of $42,000–$44,000 forecasted by Jiang is approximately 30% below current levels, while Hayes's $40,000 level implies a drop of nearly 35%.
My professional opinion: The consensus between such different players as a Chinese miner and the founder of BitMEX is not a coincidence. The market is clearly entering a phase of "altcoin capitulation" and risk reassessment. However, it is important to remember that the mNAV bottom is not the BTC price bottom. If history repeats itself, we could see not only $42,000 but also deeper levels before a new bull cycle begins. The strategy of accumulating during drawdowns remains valid, but only for those willing to hold positions for at least 12–18 months.