Bitcoin on the verge of a deep correction: Chinese miner and Arthur Hayes agree on a forecast of $40,000–$44,000
The Bitcoin market is entering a phase where consensus among institutional players is becoming increasingly bearish. One of China's largest miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhouer, presented his analysis, according to which the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will be in the range of $42,000–$44,000. Notably, this forecast almost mirrors the recent assessment of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who expects a drop to $40,000.
Bearish Signal from Strategy (MSTR) Stock
Jiang's key argument is the abnormal decline in the mNAV indicator (market value of the company relative to the value of its Bitcoin reserves per share) for Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). Currently, this indicator has dropped to 0.72, close to the historical lows of May 2022. When mNAV is below 1.0, it means the market values the company cheaper than its own BTC holdings. Jiang interprets this not as a precise price target, but as a powerful bearish signal preceding further decline. Importantly, the last time mNAV bottomed in May 2022 with Bitcoin around $31,000, the asset itself continued to fall to $15,650 by November of that year amid the FTX collapse. Jiang warns: "The mNAV low is not yet the Bitcoin price low."
Cyclical Model and Timeframes
Jiang uses a four-year cycle model, comparing it to the diminishing bounces of a ball. According to this logic, the bottom of the current downtrend could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself, having survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only near the expected bottom.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical Approach and $200,000 by Year-End
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 in the next six months. However, his strategy is more tactical: he hedges positions with put spreads but still expects a rise to $200,000 by the end of the year. The current Bitcoin price (~$61,345) is roughly 30–35% above the indicated levels, making such a scenario quite realistic for a deep correction.
My Expert Commentary: The convergence of forecasts from such different profiles—an experienced miner and a veteran trader—adds extra weight to the bearish scenario. However, I would not rush to extrapolate the history of mNAV from 2022 directly. Back then, the market faced a unique black swan in the form of FTX. Currently, fundamental factors such as institutional inflow through ETFs and declining inflation could soften the decline. Nevertheless, the $40,000–$44,000 zone looks like a critical support level that the market may test within the current cycle. Investors should prepare for volatility and consider this correction as a potential entry opportunity.