Bitcoin is preparing for a pullback to $42,000: Chinese miner and Hayes agree on a bearish forecast
The Bitcoin market is once again under pressure, and this time signals are coming from the most unexpected yet authoritative sources. One of the largest Chinese miners, Jiang Zhouer, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, is betting on a local bottom in the range of $42,000–$44,000, which, according to his calculations, will materialize by the end of 2026. His forecast is nearly identical to a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who sees a correction to $40,000. This rare convergence of opinions from two industry veterans deserves close attention.
Bearish Signal from MicroStrategy: mNAV at 2022 Lows
Jiang Zhouer's key argument is the mNAV (adjusted net asset value) indicator of Strategy (ticker MSTR). Currently, this metric has dropped to 0.72, meaning the market values the company's shares cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings per share. This nearly mirrors the lows of May 2022, when mNAV fell to record low levels. At that time, Bitcoin was trading around $31,000 but later collapsed to $15,650 amid the FTX crash. Jiang emphasizes that the mNAV low is not necessarily the bottom of Bitcoin's price itself, but rather a leading signal that may indicate further decline with a lag of several months.
According to his four-year cycle model, which he compares to the diminishing bounces of a ball, the bottom of the current correction could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself has already taken short positions and plans to return to buying only at this bottom.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical Pullback to $40,000
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but via a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to the $40,000 mark within the next six months. However, it is important to understand the context: this is a tactical, not a fundamental, bet. Hayes is hedging his positions using put spreads, but in the long term, he still expects growth above $200,000 by the end of the year. Thus, the current bearish forecast is more of a risk management strategy rather than a denial of the bullish trend.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The $42,000–$44,000 range indicated by Jiang Zhouer is approximately 30% below current levels, while Hayes' $40,000 level suggests a drop of nearly 35%. The key question is whether mNAV will repeat its leading function, as in 2022, and whether this indicator will become a harbinger of a deeper correction.
Expert Opinion: The coincidence of forecasts from such different players as a Chinese miner and the founder of BitMEX is no accident. The market is clearly overheated, and a correction of 30–35% from current levels looks quite healthy within the current cycle. However, I would not rush to conclusions: if mNAV truly is a leading indicator, the bottom could be delayed by six months or more. Investors should prepare for volatility and view a potential pullback as an opportunity to enter, rather than a catastrophe.