Bearish consensus: Chinese miner and Arthur Hayes agree on Bitcoin bottom forecast around $40,000–$44,000
The Bitcoin market is once again in the spotlight of analysts, and this time, signals of a correction are coming from unexpected quarters. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhouer, has published a forecast according to which the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will be reached in the range of $42,000–$44,000. Notably, his assessment almost coincides with a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicts BTC could fall to $40,000 within the next six months.
Jiang Zhouer's main argument is a bearish signal coming from the shares of Strategy (ticker MSTR). The analyst draws attention to the mNAV indicator (the ratio of the company's market value to the value of Bitcoin per share). Currently, this indicator has dropped to nearly 0.7, matching the lows of May 2022. When mNAV is below 1.0, it means the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings. According to the miner, this is not just a technical artifact, but an important signal preceding a serious drop in the price of the underlying asset.
Historical Parallel and Timeframe
Jiang draws a parallel with 2022, when mNAV hit a low in May with Bitcoin's price around $31,000, but the asset continued to decline and by November crashed to $15,650 amid the collapse of the FTX exchange. About six months passed between these two points. Now, the miner suggests that the bottom of the current cycle could fall on October 31, 2026, using a four-year cycle model, which he compares to the fading bounces of a ball. At the same time, he emphasizes that the mNAV low is not necessarily the Bitcoin price low, but rather a leading indicator.
Jiang Zhouer himself, having survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom. This indicates a high degree of confidence in the scenario of a downward correction.
Hayes' View: Tactical Short Play
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion, but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000, and he is using put spreads—an options strategy hedging against downside risks—to protect his positions. However, unlike the miner, Hayes views this scenario as tactical, not fundamental. He still expects growth above $200,000 by the end of the year, but prefers to hedge against a short-term correction.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% over the day. The range named by Jiang Zhouer is approximately 30% below current levels, while Hayes' $40,000 mark implies a drop of nearly 35%. The key question now is whether mNAV will repeat its leading nature, as in 2022, and whether this will be a prelude to a deeper decline closer to the end of 2026.
Expert Comment: The convergence of forecasts from such different figures—a miner with years of experience and an institutional trader—adds additional weight to this scenario. However, I would note that the market is currently in a completely different macroeconomic environment than in 2022. The inflow of institutional capital through ETFs and the potential easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy could significantly mitigate or even cancel this bearish scenario. Investors should consider these forecasts as a signal for hedging, not for panic selling.