Bitcoin targets $42,000: Chinese miner and Arthur Hayes agree
The Bitcoin market appears to be preparing for a significant correction. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jian Zhouer, has published a forecast suggesting that the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will be reached in the range of $42,000–$44,000. According to him, this scenario will unfold by the end of 2026. Notably, his assessment almost coincides with a recent statement by BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, who expects Bitcoin to drop to $40,000 within the next six months.
Zhouer's main argument is a bearish signal coming from the shares of Strategy (ticker MSTR). He points to a critical decline in the mNAV (modified Net Asset Value) indicator to the level of 0.72. This indicator reflects the ratio of the company's market price per share to the value of Bitcoin per share. When mNAV falls below 1.0, it means the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings. Currently, this indicator has dropped to nearly 0.7, which is the lowest value since May 2022.
Parallels with the 2022 Bear Market
Zhouer draws parallels with the 2022 cycle. Back then, mNAV bottomed in May with Bitcoin's price around $31,000, but the asset itself continued to fall to $15,650 by November amid the collapse of the FTX exchange. The miner emphasizes that the mNAV low is not necessarily the Bitcoin price low. He uses a four-year cycle model, comparing it to the dampening bounces of a ball. According to this logic, the bottom of the current decline could occur on October 31, 2026.
Zhouer himself, having survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Hayes' Tactical Approach
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but through a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, it's important to understand the context: his bet is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes is hedging his positions using put spreads (an options strategy to protect against a decline), but overall, he still expects growth. He anticipates a price above $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of writing this analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% over the day. Thus, the $42,000 level mentioned by Zhouer implies a drop of about 30% from current values, and Hayes' $40,000 mark represents nearly 35%.
My expert opinion: The coincidence of forecasts from such different players—a miner with years of experience and an institutional trader—deserves attention. However, I would not rush to perceive this as an unambiguous signal to sell. The bearish sentiment could be a result of a temporary reassessment of risks amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Nevertheless, if mNAV continues to fall, it could indeed become a trigger for a deeper correction. The key question is whether Bitcoin can hold support around $50,000, or if we are in for a repeat of the 2022 scenario.