Bitcoin on the path to $42,000: Chinese miner and former BitMEX head agree on bearish forecast
The Bitcoin market appears to be preparing for a significant correction. One of China's largest miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhuoer, has published a forecast suggesting the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will be in the range of $42,000–$44,000. Notably, his estimate closely aligns with a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicted a drop in BTC to $40,000.
Jiang argues his position by analyzing the mNAV indicator of Strategy's stock (ticker MSTR). This multiplier reflects the ratio of the company's market value to the amount of Bitcoin per share. Currently, mNAV has dropped to nearly 0.72, a level close to the lows of May 2022. When this ratio is below 1.0, the market values the company cheaper than its own BTC holdings, which is a classic bearish signal.
Bearish Signal from mNAV: History May Repeat Itself
However, Jiang warns that the mNAV low is not necessarily the bottom of Bitcoin's price. In May 2022, when mNAV reached a similar level, BTC was trading around $31,000. But the asset continued to decline and by the end of November crashed to $15,650 amid the collapse of the FTX exchange. About six months passed between these two points. Now, Jiang expects the scenario could repeat itself: the bottom of the current decline, according to his four-year cycle model, will fall on October 31, 2026.
The miner himself has already shifted to a defensive stance: he holds short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom. His strategy is hedging against further decline, rather than betting on a quick reversal.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical Defense, Not a Fundamental Reversal
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, reached similar conclusions but via a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his position is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes is hedging his positions with put spreads (an options strategy to protect against a decline), but overall, he still expects growth: by the end of the year, he anticipates a price above $200,000.
At the time of writing this analysis, BTC is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The range Jiang mentions is approximately 30% below this level, while Hayes' $40,000 target implies a drop of nearly 35%.
The key question now is whether mNAV will once again lead the price by six months, as it did in 2022. If so, Bitcoin forecasts for the end of 2026 could be much bleaker than most market participants expect.
Analyst's Opinion: The coincidence of forecasts from such different players—a miner with years of experience and an institutional trader—deserves attention. However, it's important to remember: mNAV is a sentiment indicator, not a precise predictor. And while the signal is indeed bearish, the cryptocurrency market is known for its ability to spring surprises. The current correction may be deep, but it also creates opportunities for entry for those willing to wait.