Bearish signal from MSTR: Chinese miner and Arthur Hayes agree on a forecast of Bitcoin dropping to $40,000–42,000
The cryptocurrency market is receiving increasingly alarming signals. One of China's largest Bitcoin miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhuoer, published his analysis, according to which the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will be in the range of $42,000–44,000. Notably, his forecast almost coincides with a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who suggested a drop in BTC to $40,000.
Key Indicator — Strategy's (MSTR) mNAV
Jiang's main argument is the mNAV metric of Strategy's stock (ticker MSTR). This indicator reflects the ratio of the market price of the stock to the company's net asset value per Bitcoin. Currently, mNAV has dropped to nearly 0.7, close to the lows of May 2022. When mNAV is below 1.0, the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings, which is a strong bearish signal for the asset itself.
Jiang interprets this as a signal, not a precise timing guide. He recalls that last time, when mNAV bottomed in May 2022 with Bitcoin around $31,000, the asset continued to fall to $15,650 by November of that year amid the FTX collapse. "It must be considered that the mNAV low is not yet the Bitcoin price low," he emphasizes.
Jiang determines the timing of the bottom using the four-year cycle model, comparing it to the diminishing bounces of a ball. According to his logic, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself, having survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical View at $40,000
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical. Hayes is hedging positions with put spreads (an options strategy to protect against declines), but overall still expects growth: by the end of the year, he expects the price above $200,000.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in a day. Jiang's $42,000 level is approximately 30% below current values, while Hayes's $40,000 mark implies a drop of nearly 35%.
Commentary from Cryptalist analyst: The convergence of forecasts from such different figures as a Chinese miner and the founder of BitMEX is no coincidence. The mNAV indicator is indeed a powerful leading signal, and its current value deserves close attention. The question is not whether a correction will occur, but whether mNAV will again lead the price by six months. If so, the scenario with a drop to $40,000–42,000 by the end of 2026 becomes the primary one. The current tactic of shorting to the bottom and buying at the lows seems reasonable for conservative investors.