Bitcoin on the verge of a deep correction: Chinese miner and Arthur Hayes see a bottom around $40,000
The bitcoin market is once again entering a zone of turbulence, and judging by the latest signals, a significant decline may be ahead. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhouer, has voiced a very specific forecast: the local bottom for BTC will fall in the range of $42,000 – $44,000, and it will be reached by the end of 2026. His analysis is almost synchronized with recent statements by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who also predicts a drop to $40,000.
The Chinese expert considers the critical state of the mNAV indicator of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) shares to be the main argument in favor of this scenario. Currently, this coefficient, which reflects the ratio of the market value of shares to the volume of bitcoin per share, has dropped to nearly 0.72. This level is close to the minimum values of May 2022. In essence, the market is valuing the company cheaper than its own bitcoin holdings, which is a powerful bearish signal.
However, as Jiang rightly notes, the mNAV minimum is not necessarily the immediate bottom for bitcoin itself. In 2022, when this indicator fell to record levels, BTC was worth about $31,000, but then continued its decline to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse. Thus, the time lag between the signal and the actual bottom could be several months. The miner himself uses a four-year cycle model, comparing it to the dampening bounces of a ball, and his calculations point to a possible bottom on October 31, 2026.
Jiang, who has survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the very bottom. This is a pragmatic approach from someone who sees the market from the inside.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical Correction Within a Bullish Trend
Arthur Hayes arrives at a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. It is important to understand that for Hayes, this is more of a tactical move. He is hedging his positions through put spreads, but in the long term, he remains a staunch bull, expecting a price above $200,000 by the end of the year. This indicates that the current forecast is not a fundamental reversal, but a correction within an upward trend.
At the time of writing this analysis, bitcoin is trading around $61,345, having lost 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The levels mentioned by the experts suggest a decline of 30-35% from current values. The key question for the market now is whether mNAV will repeat its historical pattern and precede the actual BTC bottom by six months. If so, we are in for a prolonged and deep correction before a new phase of growth begins.
My expert opinion: The consensus between such different market participants as a Chinese miner and the founder of BitMEX is a strong signal. The scenario of a drop to $40,000-$44,000 looks increasingly likely. However, I would not rush to conclusions about a "bear market." Rather, this is a necessary "sanitary" correction that will shake out weak hands and create a foundation for the next powerful rally. Investors should be prepared for volatility and consider a potential decline as an opportunity for entry, not a catastrophe.