Chinese miner and BitMEX founder agree: Bitcoin is expected to drop to $40,000–42,000
The Bitcoin market is teetering on the edge, and two hardcore industry veterans — Chinese miner Jiang Zhuoer and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes — have issued nearly identical bearish forecasts. Both see a local bottom in the $40,000–44,000 range, but differ on timing and analytical approaches.
Signal from MSTR: Strategy stock discount hits 2022 lows
Jiang Zhuoer, who manages the BTC.TOP mining pool, points to a critical indicator — the mNAV metric for Strategy (MSTR) shares. This ratio reflects the market price of the stock relative to the value of Bitcoin held on the company's balance sheet per share. When mNAV falls below 1.0, the market values the company at less than its own Bitcoin reserve.
Currently, mNAV has dropped to nearly 0.7 — a level last seen in May 2022. At that time, Bitcoin was trading around $31,000, but subsequently crashed to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse. Jiang emphasizes that the mNAV low is not a precise price target for BTC, but rather a warning signal. According to his four-year cycle model, which he compares to "dampening ball bounces," the bottom of the current correction could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself is already holding short positions and plans to buy only at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical bet on a drop to $40,000
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but via a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could fall to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his stance is more tactical: he is using put spreads for hedging, but in the long term, he still expects a rise above $200,000 by year-end.
The current BTC price is around $61,345, implying a potential 30–35% decline to the indicated levels. The key question is: will mNAV repeat the 2022 history and lead the price by six months? If so, Bitcoin forecasts closer to the end of 2026 could prove far bleaker than optimists assume.
My opinion: The convergence of forecasts from such different figures as a miner and a veteran trader is a powerful signal that cannot be ignored. The market is clearly overheated, and a correction to $40,000–42,000 looks technically justified. But don't forget: an mNAV bottom does not guarantee a BTC bottom — the 2022 history showed that the decline can be deeper and longer. Keep your powder dry.