Bearish Consensus: Bitcoin Could Drop to $42,000 — Analysts and Miners Agree
The cryptocurrency market is once again under pressure from bearish sentiment. Leading industry experts, including renowned Chinese miner Jiang Zhouer and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, agree that Bitcoin is facing a significant correction. According to analysts, the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency could be reached in the range of $40,000–$44,000 by the end of 2026.
Signal from Strategy's Stock: mNAV Indicates Weakness
A key argument from Jiang Zhouer, who manages the BTC.TOP mining pool, is the anomalous behavior of the mNAV indicator for Strategy (ticker MSTR). This indicator, reflecting the ratio of the stock's market price to the value of Bitcoin per share, has dropped to 0.72. A value below 1.0 means the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings — a classic bearish signal.
The current mNAV is approaching the lows of May 2022, when Bitcoin was trading around $31,000. However, as the miner himself emphasizes, the mNAV low is not an accurate predictor of the asset's price bottom. In 2022, after reaching this level, Bitcoin continued to fall to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse. Thus, this indicator rather points to the depth of structural pessimism, not the timeframe.
Using a four-year cycle model, which Zhouer compares to the fading bounces of a ball, he predicts the bottom of the current downward movement will be reached by October 31, 2026. The miner has already opened short positions and plans to return to buying only at the expected bottom.
Arthur Hayes: A Tactical View at $40,000
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. It is important to note that his forecast is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes uses put spreads to hedge his positions, but in the long term, he still expects growth above $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. This means there is about a 30% drop remaining to the $42,000 level, and nearly 35% to the $40,000 mark.
The key question for investors is whether mNAV will repeat its leading role, as in 2022, or whether the market will react faster this time. If the historical analogy holds, we are facing at least another year and a half of consolidation and decline.
Expert opinion: The consensus among such different figures as a miner and a former exchange executive is a serious signal. The market is likely overheated with speculative optimism, and current levels do not appear sustainable. Investors should prepare for a prolonged correction and reconsider risk management strategies, especially in light of macroeconomic uncertainty.