Bearish consensus: Chinese miner and Arthur Hayes see Bitcoin at $40,000–42,000
The Bitcoin market is once again entering a zone of uncertainty, and two authoritative voices from the industry—Chinese mining magnate Jian Zhouer and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes—are reaching similar but concerning conclusions. Jian predicts a local bottom for the first cryptocurrency in the range of $42,000–44,000, which, according to his calculations, will be reached by the end of 2026. His colleague Hayes, in turn, cites the $40,000 mark within the next six months.
Jian's argument is based on an analysis of the mNAV indicator for Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) shares. This indicator, reflecting the ratio of the company's market value to the amount of Bitcoin per share, has now dropped to nearly 0.72. Such a situation, where the market values the company below its own BTC holdings, was last seen in May 2022—well before the crash to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse. At that time, mNAV anticipated the price drop by six months. Jian warns: the mNAV minimum does not necessarily mean the bottom for Bitcoin itself.
Cyclicality and Tactics
Jian derives the timeframe for his forecast from the four-year cycle model, comparing the current dynamics to "dampening ball bounces." He suggests the bottom could occur on October 31, 2026. Meanwhile, the miner himself has already taken short positions and intends to return to buying only at the local bottom.
Arthur Hayes, while agreeing with the direction, approaches the issue differently. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could fall to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his strategy is more tactical in nature: he uses put spreads for hedging, but in the long term, he still expects growth above $200,000 by the end of the year. This indicates that, in his view, the current bearish sentiment is a temporary correction within a bullish trend.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% over the past day. The levels cited by Jian and Hayes imply a drop of 30–35% from current values.
My expert perspective: the convergence of forecasts from two such different players—a miner with years of experience and an institutional trader—deserves attention. However, history shows that mNAV can lead the price by months, and market cyclicality is rarely linear. Investors should prepare for increased volatility but not rush into panic selling: the bottom, if it occurs, could be an excellent entry point for long-term positions.