OpenAI postpones IPO: lessons from SpaceX and a cold shower for the AI market
OpenAI's management, according to signals from insider circles, is seriously reconsidering the timeline for its public offering. The reason is SpaceX's volatile start, which clearly demonstrated that even the biggest names in the tech sector are not immune to brutal volatility. On the Polymarket platform, traders already estimate the probability that OpenAI will not go public before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This is a significant indicator of market skepticism.
Let me remind you that SpaceX, which placed shares at $135 each in an IPO valued at $75 billion on June 11, soared above $225 within days, and the company's market cap temporarily exceeded $2 trillion. However, the euphoria gave way to a sharp pullback. By June 26, SPCX shares are trading around $152.86 — virtually unchanged from the offering price. Such volatility: first rapid growth, then a 25–30% decline — now, according to insiders, is directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately indicated that the timeline for the public offering has not yet been determined. Sarah Friar, reportedly, suggests waiting until 2027, arguing this is necessary due to massive investments in computing infrastructure and the complexities of public reporting. CEO Sam Altman's opinion differs from his colleagues — he insists on a faster market entry. The SpaceX case only heightens the concerns of market participants.
Even the most high-profile offerings now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains uncertain.
My comment as an analyst: This story is an excellent indicator of market maturity. Investors are no longer willing to pay for promises without tangible results. If OpenAI decides to postpone the IPO, it could be a reasonable step to wait for a more stable market environment and demonstrate sustainable monetization of AI products. However, delaying the public offering could also signal hidden problems, which for such a capital-intensive company is a worrying sign.