Bitcoin is preparing for a drop to $42,000: Expert consensus and signals from MicroStrategy
The Bitcoin market is once again in the spotlight, and this time, forecasts from leading industry players converge on one point: a significant correction is ahead. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhouer, presented his analysis, according to which the local bottom for BTC will be established in the range of $42,000–$44,000. This forecast almost perfectly correlates with a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who expects a drop to $40,000.
Bearish Signal from the Corporate Giant's Strategy
Jiang Zhouer's main argument is not just market intuition. He points to a critical indicator related to the shares of Strategy (ticker MSTR). This refers to the mNAV (modified Net Asset Value) indicator, which has now dropped to 0.72. This means the market values the company cheaper than the cost of its own Bitcoin holdings per share. The last time such a low was observed was in May 2022, when Bitcoin was trading around $31,000. However, as we recall, BTC continued to fall to $15,650 following the FTX collapse, which took about six months.
Jiang emphasizes that the mNAV low is not a precise price target, but rather a powerful bearish signal. According to his four-year cycle model, which he compares to the fading bounces of a ball, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself has already taken short positions and plans to return to buying only at the very bottom.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical Play with a Target of $200,000
Arthur Hayes, for his part, reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, it is important to understand the context: Hayes views this as a tactical correction, not a fundamental trend reversal. He uses put spreads to hedge his positions, but maintains a long-term bullish forecast, expecting the price to exceed $200,000 by the end of the year.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around the $61,345 mark, losing 2.3% in the last day. Jiang's projected level of $42,000 implies a drop of about 30% from current values, and Hayes's mark of $40,000 represents nearly 35%. The key question for the market now is whether mNAV will repeat its history and lead BTC's price by six months, as it did in 2022. If so, we are in for a prolonged, but perhaps final, deep correction before a new growth cycle.
Cryptalist Analyst Comment: The convergence of forecasts from such different figures as a miner and a trader-speculator is a serious signal. The market is clearly overheated, and a correction is overdue. However, one should not confuse a local pullback with the end of the bull market. I view the $40,000–$44,000 zone as an ideal entry point for the long term, especially against the backdrop of the expected halving and institutional adoption. Patience here is the key asset.