OpenAI under pressure: IPO may be delayed until 2027 due to market volatility and the SpaceX case
OpenAI's management, according to my data, is urging caution regarding the timing of the company's stock market debut. The reason was SpaceX's unstable start, which demonstrated all the risks associated with large stock offerings in the AI sector. We are witnessing how one of the most anticipated IPOs of the year turned into a lesson in market discipline.
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This forecast reflects market skepticism towards large bets on companies with high expectations but uncertain returns.
SpaceX: Rise and Fall as a Warning
SpaceX placed shares at $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), they started at $150, and by June 17, the price had risen above $225, temporarily exceeding a market capitalization of $2 trillion. However, the situation quickly changed: the shares almost completely lost their initial gains and sharply declined. As of June 26, SPCX is trading around $152.86 — almost unchanged from the offering price after a series of double-digit drops.
Such volatility — first rapid growth, then a 25–30% pullback — is now, according to insider reports, influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors. This is a classic example of the "overvaluation phenomenon," where retail investors initially enter in a frenzy and then reassess their positions.
Internal Debates: When to Go Public?
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately indicated that the timing of the public offering has not yet been determined. "We are not rushing because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
Sarah Friar, according to my data, suggests waiting until 2027 amid high expenses, the need to invest in computing infrastructure, and the complexities of public reporting. CEO Sam Altman's opinion diverges from his colleagues — he insists on a faster market entry. This split reflects a fundamental conflict between the "growth at any cost" strategy and the need to demonstrate sustainable profitability.
Why This Matters for Investors
Even the most high-profile offerings now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes.
The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains uncertain. Keep an eye on SpaceX's recovery in July, possible moves by Anthropic, and OpenAI's quarterly results. Even if the offering is delayed, a more sustainable listing could yield historic returns if the company demonstrates viable revenues from AI technologies amid declining investor interest in "growth at any cost" strategies.
My analysis: The delay of OpenAI's IPO is not a sign of weakness but a mature move. The market is learning from SpaceX's mistakes, and I expect OpenAI to go public only when it can demonstrate not only technological leadership but also a clear path to monetization. Investors should prepare for a long wait — possibly until 2027.