Bearish Consensus: Chinese Miner and Arthur Hayes Agree on Bitcoin Drop to $40,000–$42,000
The cryptocurrency market is increasingly hearing voices of major players predicting a significant correction. One of the most respected Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhouer, has presented his forecast, according to which the local bottom of Bitcoin will be in the range of $42,000–$44,000. Notably, his analysis almost coincides with recent statements by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who expects a decline to $40,000.
Signal from MicroStrategy: mNAV Points to Problems
Jiang's main argument is the critical drop in the mNAV (adjusted net asset value per share) indicator of Strategy (ticker MSTR). Currently, this indicator has fallen to 0.72, the lowest level since May 2022. An mNAV below 1.0 means the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings per share. This is a powerful bearish signal, which, according to the miner, indicates an upcoming correction in the BTC market.
Jiang Zhouer emphasizes that the mNAV low is not a precise price target for Bitcoin, but rather a timing signal. In 2022, when mNAV hit bottom, Bitcoin was trading around $31,000, but subsequently crashed to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse. The miner warns that a similar scenario could repeat, and the bottom of the current cycle may only be reached by the end of 2026, according to his "diminishing ball bounces" model.
Hayes' Tactical Bet on $40,000
Arthur Hayes arrived at a similar conclusion, but by a different path. He views the decline to $40,000 as a tactical opportunity, not a fundamental collapse. To protect against the drop, he uses put spreads, but remains a long-term bull, expecting the price to exceed $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in a day. Thus, the forecasted levels of $40,000–$44,000 imply a drop of 30–35% from current values.
Cryptalist Comment: The coincidence of forecasts from two such different but influential figures — a Chinese miner looking at on-chain metrics and corporate indicators, and a veteran trader like Hayes — deserves attention. However, the key question I ask myself is: can mNAV again lead the price by six months, as it did in 2022? If so, we are in for not a quick drop, but a prolonged correction until the end of 2026, rather than just a local pullback.