OpenAI considers IPO shift: lessons from SpaceX volatility prompt timeline reassessment
According to my information, OpenAI's board of directors is increasingly leaning toward a cautious approach regarding an IPO. The reason was the high-profile but extremely volatile debut of SpaceX shares, which clearly demonstrated the risks associated with large placements in the technology sector, especially in AI.
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This forecast reflects growing market skepticism, despite the enormous expectations surrounding the company.
SpaceX: A story of how a rally turned into a correction
SpaceX conducted a massive IPO on June 11, 2026, placing shares at $135 each and raising $75 billion. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), shares started at $150, and by June 17 had soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization past $2 trillion.
However, the situation then changed dramatically. The sharp rise was followed by an equally sharp decline. By June 26, SPCX was trading around $152.86, almost completely erasing the initial gains and returning to the offering price after a series of double-digit percentage drops.
Internal debates at OpenAI: Caution vs. ambition
This volatility — first a surge, then a 25-30% pullback — directly impacted sentiment within OpenAI. The company filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately made it clear that the timeline for the public offering remained open.
"We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
According to my information, key figures, including Sarah Friar, suggest waiting until 2027. The argument is based on huge computing infrastructure costs and the complexities associated with public reporting. At the same time, CEO Sam Altman insists on a faster market entry, creating internal tension.
Sources familiar with the situation emphasize that the SpaceX case has only heightened market participants' concerns. Even the most high-profile placements are now facing a tough assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends.
Why this matters for investors
OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion. With such high expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains highly uncertain.
My analysis: Postponing the IPO to 2027 could be a strategically sound move if OpenAI uses this time to demonstrate sustainable revenue from AI technologies. However, amid declining interest in the "growth at any cost" strategy, a delay also carries risks — investors may lose patience. The key signals will be the company's quarterly results and possible moves by competitors such as Anthropic.