Bitcoin targets $42,000: Chinese miner and BitMEX founder agree on bearish forecast
The cryptocurrency market is once again receiving signals for caution. One of the most respected Chinese miners, the founder of the BTC.TOP pool, has published his analysis, according to which the local bottom for Bitcoin could be reached in the range of $42,000–$44,000. Notably, his timeframe and price target almost coincide with the recent forecast by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who expects a drop to $40,000. This is a rare case of consensus between two such different but influential figures in the industry.
The main argument of the Chinese miner is a bearish signal coming from the shares of Strategy (ticker MSTR). He points to a critical drop in the company's mNAV (adjusted net asset value) indicator, which has now fallen to 0.72. This indicator reflects the ratio of the market price of the stock to the value of Bitcoin per share. A value below 1.0 means that the market is valuing the company cheaper than its own BTC holdings.
Strategy's mNAV: Signal or Leading Indicator?
The current drop in mNAV to nearly 0.7 is the lowest level we have seen since May 2022. However, as the miner himself rightly notes, the mNAV low is not yet the Bitcoin price low. In 2022, after reaching this level, Bitcoin continued its decline from $31,000 to $15,650 in November amid the FTX collapse. The time gap between these events was about six months. This historical precedent is extremely important: it suggests that the current signal may only be a harbinger of a deeper correction, not its endpoint.
The miner determines his timeframe using the four-year cycle model, comparing it to "dampening ball bounces." According to his logic, the bottom of the current downward movement could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself, having survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, it is important to understand the context: his bet is more tactical than fundamental. He is hedging positions with put spreads, but overall still expects a rise to $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of writing the analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The $42,000 level from the Chinese miner implies a drop of about 30% from current values, while Hayes' $40,000 mark implies nearly 35%.
My expert commentary: The convergence of forecasts from two such authoritative figures—a miner living in the real sector and a trader-philosopher—deserves attention. However, I would caution against blindly copying their strategies. The drop in mNAV is a powerful but not precise indicator. The market could find a bottom much faster or, conversely, prolong the decline. The key question now is whether Bitcoin can hold support around $60,000, or if we will see an acceleration of the downtrend that leads to the realization of these grim scenarios. Investors should prepare for increased volatility and reconsider their risk management strategies.