OpenAI is reconsidering its IPO timeline: lessons from SpaceX and market pressure
A serious revision of the strategy for going public is brewing behind the scenes at OpenAI. Internal sources close to the board of directors signal a growing inclination to postpone the initial public offering (IPO) until 2027. Paradoxically, the key catalyst for this decision was not OpenAI's own experience, but the turbulent and highly volatile debut of SpaceX's stock.
SpaceX as a Warning
As a reminder, SpaceX listed its shares (ticker SPCX) at $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11. The first days of trading were impressive: the price soared above $225, and the company's market capitalization briefly exceeded $2 trillion. However, the euphoria gave way to a sharp pullback. By June 26, SpaceX shares were trading around $152.86, virtually erasing all initial gains and retreating 25–30% from their peak values. This volatility—a classic "inflate-deflate bubble" pattern—has become a powerful argument for the "hawks" in OpenAI's leadership who are urging caution.
Polymarket Bets and Internal Disagreements
Traders on the Polymarket platform estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This reflects high market skepticism, especially against the backdrop of the company's enormous private valuations, which have reached $850 billion. At such a capitalization, the cost of any mistake on the public market becomes prohibitive.
There is also no unity within the company. CFO Sarah Friar, according to available information, is lobbying for a postponement of the listing until 2027, arguing the need for massive investments in computing infrastructure and the challenges of transitioning to a public reporting regime. At the same time, CEO Sam Altman insists on a faster stock market debut. This is a classic conflict between a vision of long-term growth and the need to raise capital for current gigantic expenditures.
Why This Matters for Investors
Even the most high-profile listings now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period expires. The situation with SpaceX clearly demonstrates that the market is no longer willing to unconditionally reward "growth at any cost" strategies in the AI sector.
The window for OpenAI's public debut remains open, but uncertainty is high. If the company decides to postpone the IPO, it could be perceived as a sign of maturity and caution, which in the long term might lead to a more sustainable listing. However, for this to happen, OpenAI will have to demonstrate to the market not just promises, but real, viable revenues from its AI technologies. Keep an eye on quarterly results and possible moves by Anthropic—they will be key indicators of sentiment in the sector.
My analysis: Postponing the OpenAI IPO is not a sign of weakness, but rather a pragmatic step in the conditions of the "new reality." The market is saturated with stories about future super-profits and demands concrete figures. SpaceX has shown that even the most compelling narrative can quickly lose steam. OpenAI, with its colossal valuation, is making a wise move by trying to avoid a similar scenario, even if it means a year-long delay. For long-term investors, such a pause could be a blessing if it leads to a more mature and sustainable public offering.