Bitcoin is preparing for a deep correction: two megaminers point to the $40,000–$44,000 zone
The bitcoin market is entering a phase that, in my assessment, is one of the most tense of recent cycles. Two authoritative players — Chinese miner Jiang Zhuoer and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes — are almost simultaneously pointing to a local bottom in the $40,000–$44,000 range. This is not just a coincidence, but a signal worth taking seriously.
Bearish signal from MSTR: why mNAV is falling
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the mining pool BTC.TOP, predicts that bitcoin's bottom will occur at the end of 2026 in the range of $42,000–$44,000. His key argument is the mNAV indicator of Strategy (ticker MSTR), which has now dropped to nearly 0.72. This indicator reflects the ratio of the company's market value to its bitcoin holdings per share. If it is below 1.0, the market is valuing the company cheaper than its own BTC holdings.
Currently, mNAV is at lows comparable to May 2022, when bitcoin was trading around $31,000. At that time, however, the asset continued to fall to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse. Jiang emphasizes that the mNAV low is not yet the bitcoin price low, but merely an early warning signal.
"It should be noted that the mNAV low is not yet the bitcoin price low," he added.
According to his four-year cycle model, which he compares to the fading bounces of a ball, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. Zhouer himself, having survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes: tactical bet on $40,000
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion, but by a different route. In an interview with blogger EllioTrades on June 12, he stated that bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, he emphasizes that this is more of a tactical rather than a fundamental bet. Hayes is hedging his position with put spreads (an options strategy to protect against a decline), but overall expects a rise to $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of analysis, bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The range mentioned by Jiang is roughly 30% below this level, while Hayes' $40,000 level implies a drop of nearly 35%.
My expert view: The coincidence of forecasts from two such different figures — a miner and a trader — is rare. It indicates that the market is pricing in a significant correction, but not a crash. The key question is whether mNAV will again lead the price by six months. If so, by the end of 2026 we could see not only the bottom, but also the start of a new bull cycle. For now, caution is the best ally.