OpenAI is considering postponing its IPO to 2027 amid market volatility following the SpaceX listing.
OpenAI's management is urging caution regarding the timeline for an initial public offering (IPO), analyzing the recent experience of SpaceX. The volatility demonstrated by SpaceX shares after their high-profile debut has been a key factor in reassessing the strategy for going public.
On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This indicator reflects growing market skepticism towards large placements in the artificial intelligence sector.
The SpaceX Story: From Euphoria to Correction
SpaceX placed shares at $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11. On the first day of trading, shares under the ticker SPCX started at $150, and by June 17, they had soared above $225, temporarily exceeding a market capitalization of $2 trillion.
However, the situation changed rapidly. By June 26, SPCX was trading around $152.86 — almost unchanged from the placement price after a series of days with double-digit percentage declines. This dynamic — rapid growth followed by a 25–30% pullback — is now, according to insider information, directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal Disagreements and a Strategic Pause
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately indicated that the timeline for the public offering has not yet been determined. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," the company stated.
According to available information, CFO Sarah Friar is proposing to wait until 2027 amid large expenses, the need to invest in computing infrastructure, and the complexities of public reporting. CEO Sam Altman's opinion differs from his colleagues — he insists on a faster market entry.
The SpaceX case only heightens market participants' concerns: even the most high-profile placements now must face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks once the local hype subsides.
Why This Matters for Investors
OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains uncertain.
Key factors to monitor remain: the recovery of SpaceX shares in July, potential moves by Anthropic, and OpenAI's quarterly results. Even if the placement is delayed, a more sustainable listing could yield historic returns if the company demonstrates viable revenue from AI technologies against a backdrop of declining investor interest in "growth at any cost" strategies.
My expert opinion: Postponing OpenAI's IPO is not a sign of weakness but a mature strategic move. The market has already shown that it is not ready to unconditionally accept inflated valuations of AI giants. If the company uses this time to demonstrate sustainable monetization of its technologies, rather than simply burning capital on infrastructure, the delay could result in a more successful and stable placement in the future.