Bitcoin is preparing to drop to $42,000: Chinese miner and Arthur Hayes agree
The Bitcoin market is entering a phase that could become one of the most intense in recent years. One of the most influential Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool Jiang Zhouer, stated that the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will be in the range of $42,000–$44,000. According to his forecast, this low will be reached by the end of 2026. Notably, his assessment almost completely aligns with a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who suggested Bitcoin could fall to $40,000.
Bearish Signal from Strategy Shares
Jiang Zhouer's main argument is the mNAV indicator of Strategy (ticker MSTR). Currently, this metric, which reflects the ratio of the stock price to the amount of Bitcoin per share, has dropped to nearly 0.72. When mNAV is below 1.0, it means the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings. According to the miner, the current drop in mNAV to the lows of May 2022 is a powerful bearish signal for the entire ecosystem.
It's important to understand: the mNAV low is not yet the low of Bitcoin's price. The last time this indicator fell to record lows in May 2022, Bitcoin was worth about $31,000. However, the asset then continued its decline and by November 2022 crashed to $15,650 amid the collapse of the FTX exchange. Thus, nearly six months passed between the signal from mNAV and the actual bottom.
Jiang Zhouer, who has already survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom. He uses a four-year cycle model, comparing it to the fading bounces of a ball. According to this logic, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026.
Arthur Hayes: Tactical Bet on $40,000
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes is hedging positions with put spreads (an options strategy to protect against a decline), but overall, he still expects growth — by the end of the year, he anticipates a price above $200,000.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The range mentioned by Jiang Zhouer lies about 30% below this level, and Hayes' $40,000 level implies a drop of nearly 35%.
The key question now is whether mNAV will repeat its past scenario and lead the price by six months. If so, we are facing not just a local correction, but a prolonged decline that will stretch until the end of 2026. The market is clearly preparing for a serious revaluation, and investors should be ready for high volatility.
My professional comment: The synchronicity of forecasts from two such different players — a miner with years of experience and a veteran trader — deserves attention. However, I would not rush to write off the bullish scenario. The current correction could be just a deep pullback within a long-term uptrend, rather than the start of a new bearish cycle. The key level to watch is $50,000. A break below it would confirm the bearish forecast, but until then, I maintain cautious optimism.