SpaceX IPO showed a red card to the market: OpenAI is seriously considering moving its listing.
The wave of euphoria surrounding the SpaceX IPO, which rapidly gave way to a sobering decline, has had an unexpected but powerful impact on the strategy of one of the main contenders for the public market — OpenAI. According to my sources, the company's management is currently exercising extreme caution regarding the timing of its own listing, and the reason is not internal problems, but a clear lesson from a competitor.
Lesson from SpaceX: How $75 billion became nearly $2 trillion, then turned to dust
Let me recap the timeline. SpaceX went public on June 11, 2026, pricing shares at $135 and raising $75 billion. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the stock opened at $150, and by June 17, quotes had soared above $225, pushing the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion. It seemed a new absolute leader had emerged in the market.
However, just a week later, the picture changed dramatically. By June 26, SPCX shares were trading around $152.86 — almost back to the offering price. Within days, the stock had lost all its initial gains, showing double-digit percentage declines. Such sharp volatility — a 60% surge followed by a 25-30% pullback — became a warning signal for the entire technology sector.
According to my information, this very case is now being actively discussed on OpenAI's board of directors. On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30-40%. This is a direct indicator of market skepticism regarding the ability of even the most prominent AI companies to successfully navigate the public listing process under current conditions.
Internal debates: Fryer vs. Altman
OpenAI filed a confidential registration statement with the SEC on June 8, but immediately noted that the timing of the public offering had not yet been determined. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
According to my information, key figures in management are divided. CFO Sarah Fryer insists on postponing the listing until at least 2027. Her arguments are substantial: colossal expenses on computing infrastructure, the need to invest in development, and the challenges of public reporting, which will require the company to demonstrate profitability, not just growth.
At the same time, CEO Sam Altman, known for his ambitious approach, is lobbying for a faster listing. However, the SpaceX case has become a powerful counterargument for his opponents. The market instability following the SpaceX listing is forcing even the most optimistic insiders to reconsider their positions.
Why this is critical for investors
OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion. With such high expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. Investors burned by SpaceX will now demand from OpenAI not just bold statements, but clear profitability metrics and a sustainable business model. The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains highly uncertain.
My expert opinion: Postponing the OpenAI IPO is not a sign of weakness, but a sign of maturity. In the current macroeconomic environment, where investors are tired of "growth at any cost" strategies, a later but well-prepared listing could yield much more historic returns. However, if OpenAI cannot demonstrate viable revenues from AI technologies in the coming quarters, even a postponement to 2027 will not save the situation. The market is waiting not just for technology, but for profits.