Bitcoin targets $42,000: Chinese miner confirms bearish scenario
The Bitcoin market is once again under bearish pressure. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, the founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jiang Zhuoer, has presented his forecast, according to which the local bottom of the first cryptocurrency will be reached in the range of $42,000–$44,000. This scenario almost completely coincides with the recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who expects a drop to $40,000.
Signal from MicroStrategy shares: mNAV at 2022 lows
Zhuoer's main argument is the critical decline in the mNAV indicator of Strategy (ticker MSTR). This ratio reflects the market value of shares relative to the amount of Bitcoin per share. Currently, mNAV has dropped to nearly 0.7, which is the lowest value since May 2022. When this indicator is below 1.0, the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings, which is a strong bearish signal.
Zhuoer emphasizes that the mNAV low is not an exact price bottom for Bitcoin itself, but rather a sentiment indicator. Last time, in May 2022, mNAV reached a low when Bitcoin was around $31,000, but the asset then continued to fall to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse in November of that year. About six months passed between these points, hinting at a possible delay between the signal and the actual bottom.
Zhuoer determines the timing using a four-year cycle model, comparing it to the fading bounces of a ball. According to his logic, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself, who has already survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the very bottom.
Arthur Hayes: a tactical view at $40,000
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes uses put spreads to hedge risks but remains a bull overall, expecting growth above $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in a day. Zhuoer's range of $42,000–$44,000 implies a drop of about 30% from current levels, while Hayes's mark of $40,000 suggests nearly 35%.
Cryptalist Expert Opinion: The coincidence of forecasts from such different players—an experienced miner and an institutional trader—gives weight to the bearish scenario. However, the key question is whether mNAV will repeat the 2022 pattern and precede the actual Bitcoin bottom by six months. If so, the current correction could drag on, and real entry opportunities will only open up towards the end of 2026. The market clearly needs a new wave of liquidity, and until it arrives, caution remains the best strategy.