OpenAI weighs risks: IPO may be delayed until 2027 amid SpaceX volatility
OpenAI's management is showing increased caution regarding the timeline for its highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO). Voices within the company are increasingly favoring postponing the listing to 2027. The main catalyst for this sentiment is the recent, extremely volatile debut of SpaceX shares, which clearly demonstrated the risks for large offerings in the current market cycle.
Data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket confirms this shift in sentiment. Traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This reflects growing skepticism about the market's ability to "absorb" such a massive offering without significant price shocks.
The SpaceX Lesson: From Euphoria to Correction
SpaceX went public on June 11, 2026, with an ambitious $75 billion IPO, placing shares at $135. The first days of trading were impressive: the ticker SPCX soared above $225, and the company's market capitalization temporarily exceeded $2 trillion. However, euphoria quickly turned to disappointment. By June 26, SpaceX shares had fallen back almost to the offering price, trading around $152.86, following a series of double-digit percentage declines.
This dynamic—a sharp rise followed by a 25–30% collapse—has become a warning signal for OpenAI's board of directors. Insiders confirm that this case directly influences their current decisions.
Internal Disagreements and a Strategic Pause
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately made it clear that the timing of the public offering remains open. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
According to available information, CFO Sarah Friar is advocating for a delay until 2027, citing massive capital expenditures on computing infrastructure and the complexities of public reporting. At the same time, CEO Sam Altman, conversely, insists on a faster path to the stock exchange. This split within management underscores the complexity of the decision being made.
Why This Matters for Investors
OpenAI's latest private valuation has reached $850 billion. With such high expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes. The SpaceX case showed that even the biggest names face harsh scrutiny of profitability and risks after the lock-up period expires.
The window of opportunity for OpenAI is still open, but the situation remains highly uncertain. Key factors will be the recovery of SpaceX shares in July, potential moves by Anthropic, and, of course, OpenAI's own quarterly results.
My analysis: The decision to delay the IPO appears strategically sound. The market, burned by SpaceX, is unlikely to readily accept another mega-offering with inflated expectations. If OpenAI can demonstrate sustainable revenues from AI technologies, rather than just following a "growth at any cost" strategy, a later but stable listing could yield investors a much higher historical return.