Bitcoin is preparing for a correction to $42,000: Chinese miner and BitMEX founder agree
The Bitcoin market is once again in the spotlight of analysts, and this time the forecasts of two influential figures align with striking precision. Chinese miner Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes have independently concluded that the leading cryptocurrency could revisit local lows in the range of $40,000–$44,000. However, their paths to this conclusion differ.
Bearish Signal from Strategy Stock
Jiang Zhuoer, who has survived multiple halvings, points to a critical indicator—the mNAV ratio of Strategy's stock (ticker MSTR). This metric has now dropped to nearly 0.7, matching the lows of May 2022. When mNAV is below 1.0, the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings—a clear bearish signal. According to the miner, this is not a precise timing tool but rather a warning of an impending decline. He recalls that last time, mNAV bottomed in May 2022 with Bitcoin around $31,000, but the asset continued to fall to $15,650 by November of that year amid the FTX collapse. Currently, Jiang holds short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom, which, according to his four-year cycle model, could fall on October 31, 2026.
Hayes' Tactical Bet
Arthur Hayes, meanwhile, reached a similar conclusion but via a different route. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes is hedging positions with put spreads (an options strategy to protect against declines), but overall, he still expects growth—by year-end, he anticipates a price above $200,000.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The range cited by Jiang lies roughly 30% below this level, while Hayes' $40,000 target implies a drop of nearly 35%. The key question now is whether mNAV will once again act as a leading indicator, as it did in 2022, or whether the market will find a bottom faster this time. In any case, both experts agree that the current correction could drag on until the end of 2026.
My expertise: The convergence of forecasts from such different figures—a miner with years of experience and the founder of a major exchange—is a serious signal for the market. However, it's worth remembering that mNAV is a sentiment indicator, not a precise timing tool. Investors should prepare for volatility but not panic: the bottom may be lower than current levels, but it won't necessarily be prolonged.