OpenAI is reconsidering its IPO timeline: lessons from SpaceX's volatility and market pressure
OpenAI's leadership is exercising heightened caution regarding the timeline for an initial public offering, carefully analyzing the recent experience of SpaceX. The turbulent yet highly volatile stock debut of the space company serves as a stark warning for OpenAI's board of directors about the risks associated with major listings in the high-tech sector.
Signals from the prediction market and real concerns
On the decentralized platform Polymarket, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 to be in the range of 30–40%. This forecast reflects growing skepticism and significant bets against a quick stock market debut for the company. Even with a confidential filing submitted to the SEC on June 8, OpenAI immediately made it clear that specific timelines for the public offering have not yet been determined. The company's internal position is clear: "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company."
The SpaceX case: from euphoria to correction
SpaceX placed shares at a price of $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the price started at $150, and by June 17 it had risen above $225, temporarily providing the company with a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion. However, this was followed by a rapid collapse. By June 26, SPCX was trading around $152.86, nearly returning to the offering price after a series of double-digit percentage declines. Such volatility — a surge of tens of percent followed by a pullback of 25–30% — is now, according to insiders, directly influencing the strategic decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal disagreements and the search for the optimal moment
According to available information, CFO Sarah Friar proposes postponing the listing until 2027, citing enormous expenses on computing infrastructure and the complexities of public reporting. In contrast, CEO Sam Altman insists on a faster market entry. OpenAI's latest private valuation has reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes.
Cryptalist Analytics
From my professional perspective, the current uncertainty surrounding OpenAI's IPO is not a sign of weakness, but a mature approach to capital management. SpaceX's history clearly demonstrates that even the biggest names can face a harsh revaluation after the lock-up period expires. If OpenAI manages to show sustainable revenue from AI technologies amid declining interest in the "growth at any cost" strategy, a delay in the listing could result in historic returns for early investors. The key indicators will be the company's quarterly results and the dynamics of SpaceX's stock recovery in July.