Bitcoin is preparing for a deep correction: two heavyweights see the bottom at $40,000
The Bitcoin market is facing a serious test. Based on my in-depth analysis, a consensus among key industry players is beginning to form in favor of a significant decline. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, the founder of the BTC.TOP pool, Jian Zhouer, has clearly identified the local bottom for the first cryptocurrency — the $42,000–$44,000 zone. This target almost coincides with the recent forecast by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who named the $40,000 mark.
Despite Bitcoin trading around $61,000, I see mounting pressure. The 2.3% loss over the past day is just the tip of the iceberg. The real picture is much deeper, and it lies in the behavior of Strategy (MSTR) stock.
Bearish Signal from MSTR: mNAV Drops to 2022 Lows
Zhouer's main argument is the mNAV indicator, which reflects the ratio of Strategy's market stock price to the value of Bitcoin per share. This metric has now dropped to nearly 0.7. This is a critical level, last seen in May 2022, when the market was just beginning its nosedive.
It's important to understand: an mNAV below 1.0 means the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings. This is a powerful signal of distrust. Zhouer interprets this as a bearish indicator, foreshadowing further declines in BTC itself. He rightly notes that the mNAV low is not yet the low for Bitcoin's price. In 2022, when mNAV hit bottom, Bitcoin was worth around $31,000, but then crashed to $15,650 after the FTX collapse. The gap between the signal and the actual bottom was about six months.
Cyclicality and Tactics: When to Expect the Bottom?
Zhouer applies a four-year cycle model, comparing market fluctuations to the dampening bounces of a ball. According to his logic, the bottom of the current correction could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself has already opened short positions and plans to return to buying only at the very bottom.
Arthur Hayes, on the other hand, approaches the issue more tactically. His $40,000 target is a hedging bet, not a fundamental forecast. He uses put spreads to protect against a decline, but maintains a bullish outlook for the end of the year, expecting growth above $200,000.
My expert view: I believe a scenario of a drop to $40,000–$42,000 is highly likely in the medium term. The signal from mNAV is too strong to ignore. However, investors should be prepared for the actual bottom to be lower and arrive later than current models suggest. The key question is whether mNAV will repeat its 2022 pattern and lead the price by six months. If so, a prolonged and painful correction awaits us.