OpenAI leans toward postponing IPO to 2027: lessons from SpaceX volatility
OpenAI's management, analyzing the recent experience of SpaceX's public stock offering, is increasingly skeptical about the prospects of its own stock market debut in the coming years. The turbulent and highly unstable start for the space company's shares has become a powerful warning for the entire high-tech IPO sector.
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 to be in the range of 30–40%. This forecast reflects growing market skepticism regarding large-scale placements in the AI sector.
The SpaceX Case: Takeoff and Sharp Decline
SpaceX placed shares at a price of $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), shares started at $150, and by June 17, the price soared above $225, temporarily raising the company's market capitalization to over $2 trillion. However, the euphoria gave way to a sharp downturn: by June 26, SPCX was trading around $152.86, having almost completely lost all initial gains after a series of double-digit daily declines.
Such volatility — first explosive growth, then a pullback of 25–30% — now, according to insider information, directly influences the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal Disagreements at OpenAI
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately indicated that the timeline for the public offering had not yet been determined. "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," the company stated.
According to available data, CFO Sarah Friar suggests waiting until 2027. This is due to enormous expenses on computing infrastructure and the complexities of transitioning to public reporting. Meanwhile, CEO Sam Altman's opinion diverges from his colleagues — he insists on a faster entry into the market.
Why This Matters for Investors
Even the most high-profile placements now have to face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes.
My analysis: OpenAI's decision to postpone the IPO would be strategically sound. The market is currently extremely sensitive to overvalued technology assets, and a failed debut could undermine confidence in the company for a long time. If OpenAI can demonstrate sustainable revenues from AI technologies and reduce its dependence on a "growth at any cost" strategy, a later but stable listing will bring much greater historical returns to all market participants.