Bearish consensus: Bitcoin prepares to drop to $42,000
The cryptocurrency market is once again on the verge of a major correction. Leading industry experts, including one of China's largest miners, agree that the local bottom for Bitcoin is in the range of $40,000–$44,000. According to their estimates, this scenario will materialize by the end of 2026.
The head of the mining pool BTC.TOP, Jiang Zhouer, presented his forecast based on an analysis of the mNAV indicator for Strategy company shares (ticker MSTR). This multiplier, which reflects the ratio of the market value of shares to the amount of Bitcoin per share, has now dropped to 0.72. This means the market is valuing the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings—a classic bearish signal.
Signal from mNAV: A Repeat of the 2022 Scenario
The current mNAV value has almost reached the lows of May 2022. At that time, this indicator collapsed to record low levels, preceding a further decline in Bitcoin. It's important to understand: the mNAV low does not necessarily mean the bottom of the asset's price itself. Last time, when mNAV bottomed out in May 2022 with Bitcoin around $31,000, the asset continued to decline and by November of the same year crashed to $15,650 amid the collapse of the FTX exchange. The gap between these points was about six months.
Jiang uses a four-year cycle model, comparing it to the fading bounces of a ball. According to his logic, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself, who has already survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes: A Tactical View on $40,000
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but by a different route. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes is hedging positions with put spreads (an options strategy to protect against declines), but overall remains bullish for the long term, expecting a price above $200,000 by the end of the year.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The range Jiang mentions lies roughly 30% below this level, while Hayes's $40,000 level implies a drop of nearly 35%.
My expert opinion: The consensus between two such different players—a miner and a veteran trader—deserves attention. However, the key question is whether mNAV will repeat the scenario of leading the price by six months. If so, we are in for not just a correction, but a prolonged bear market that could last until the end of 2026. Investors should prepare for volatility and reconsider their risk management strategies.