SpaceX has sounded an alarm: OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027.
OpenAI's leadership is exercising extreme caution regarding the timeline for its long-awaited initial public offering (IPO). The main catalyst for the revised plans is the turbulent yet highly volatile stock market debut of SpaceX. The SpaceX case clearly demonstrated the risks faced by mega-listings in the high-tech sector and prompted the OpenAI board of directors to reconsider the timing.
Traders on the Polymarket platform are already estimating the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 in the range of 30–40%. These figures reflect growing skepticism and caution in a market where stakes reach astronomical levels.
Let me recall the dynamics of SpaceX: the company listed shares at $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the price started at $150, and by June 17, it soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion. However, this was followed by a rapid collapse. By June 26, SpaceX shares were trading around $152.86 — nearly unchanged from the offering price — after a series of days with double-digit percentage declines.
Such volatility — first explosive growth, then a 25–30% pullback — is now, according to insiders, directly influencing the decisions of the OpenAI board of directors. Sarah Friar, according to sources, suggests waiting until 2027, citing enormous expenses, the need for massive investments in computing infrastructure, and the complexities associated with public reporting. Meanwhile, CEO Sam Altman insists on a faster market entry.
Even the most high-profile listings now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes.
My analysis: The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains extremely uncertain. Investors should closely monitor the recovery of SpaceX shares in July, potential moves by Anthropic, and OpenAI's own quarterly results. Even if the listing is delayed, a more sustainable IPO could yield historic returns, but only if the company can demonstrate viable revenues from AI technologies amid declining interest in "growth at any cost" strategies. In the current environment, a delay is not a weakness but a sign of maturity and strategic thinking.