Bitcoin targets $42,000: Chinese miner confirms Hayes' bearish forecast
The Bitcoin market is facing a serious correction. One of the largest Chinese miners, Jiang Zhouer, founder of the BTC.TOP pool, predicts the first cryptocurrency will drop to $42,000–$44,000 by the end of 2026. His analysis almost mirrors the recent forecast by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who expects a decline to $40,000.
Zhouer's main argument is a bearish signal coming from the shares of Strategy (ticker MSTR). The key indicator here is mNAV, which reflects the ratio of the company's market value per share to its Bitcoin holdings per share. This indicator has now dropped to nearly 0.7, matching the lows of May 2022. When mNAV is below 1.0, the market values the company cheaper than its own Bitcoin holdings, which is a warning sign.
What does mNAV say about BTC's future?
Zhouer interprets the current decline in mNAV not as a precise timing guide, but as a powerful signal. The last time mNAV hit a bottom in May 2022, Bitcoin was trading around $31,000. However, the asset then continued to fall to $15,650 in November of that year amid the FTX collapse. About six months passed between these points. "It should be noted that the mNAV low is not yet the low of the Bitcoin price," the miner emphasizes.
Zhouer ties the timing of his forecast to the four-year cycle model, comparing it to the diminishing bounces of a ball. According to this logic, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner himself, who has already survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Hayes bets on tactics
Arthur Hayes reached a similar conclusion but by a different path. In a recent interview, he stated that Bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. However, his bet is more tactical than fundamental. Hayes is hedging his positions with put spreads (an options strategy to protect against declines), but overall still expects growth—by the end of the year, he anticipates a price above $200,000.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The range Zhouer mentions is roughly 30% below this level, while Hayes' $40,000 level implies a drop of nearly 35%.
The key question for the market is whether mNAV will repeat the 2022 scenario and lead the price by six months. If so, we are in for a prolonged but not catastrophic correction, after which a window for new growth will open.
My expert opinion: The bearish consensus between miners and old-school traders is a serious indicator. However, I am not inclined to dramatize. The scenario of a drop to $40,000–$42,000 is quite realistic within the current cycle, but it does not negate the long-term bullish trend. This is more of an entry opportunity than a signal to flee.