OpenAI's IPO in Question: Lessons from SpaceX Prompt AI Giant to Reconsider Plans
OpenAI's leadership, according to my data, is urging caution regarding the company's timeline for going public. The reason is SpaceX's turbulent and extremely volatile start, which clearly demonstrated the risks of large stock offerings in the AI sector. This case has become a wake-up call for the entire market.
The market bets on a delay
On the Polymarket platform, traders estimate the probability that OpenAI will not hold an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30–40%. This forecast reflects the skepticism of market participants who are placing large bets on a postponement. This indicates that confidence in the timeline for the initial public offering has been undermined.
SpaceX: from $2 trillion to nearly zero
SpaceX placed shares at $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the price started at $150, and by June 17 it had soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization beyond $2 trillion.
However, the situation changed dramatically. By June 26, SPCX was trading around $152.86 — virtually unchanged from the offering price. The shares lost almost all of their initial gains, collapsing by double-digit percentages within a few days. Such volatility — first a rapid surge, then a pullback of 25–30% — is now, according to insiders, directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
Internal disagreements at OpenAI
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately emphasized that the timeline for the public offering has not yet been determined. The company stated: "We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company."
According to my data, Sarah Friar suggests waiting until 2027 amid huge spending on computing infrastructure and difficulties with public reporting. Meanwhile, CEO Sam Altman insists on a faster market entry, creating a rift in leadership. The SpaceX case only heightens market participants' concerns.
Why this matters for investors
Even the most high-profile offerings now face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes.
The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains extremely uncertain. Keep an eye on SpaceX's recovery in July, possible moves by Anthropic, and OpenAI's quarterly results. Even if the offering is delayed, a more sustainable listing could bring historic returns if the company demonstrates viable revenues from AI technologies amid declining investor interest in "growth at any cost" strategies.
My analysis: In the current market conditions, delaying the OpenAI IPO seems not just reasonable, but a necessary measure. The market no longer forgives overvalued and unprepared offerings, and the SpaceX example is a clear confirmation of this. Altman will likely have to yield to a conservative approach to avoid a catastrophic debut.